Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Corey Seager To Hit Home Run (+420)
Corey Seager is back and ready to get the power going tonight.
Seager returned the other night from a hamstring injury, and despite not picking up a hit in three at-bats, there are some positives. In those three at-bats, he had a 66.7% fly-ball rate and a 66.7% hard-contact rate. Yes, it's the smallest sample size you could think of, but showing he has the power in his legs is a very encouraging sign.
For the entire season, Seager has a 169 wRC+, .416 wOBA, .207 ISO, 56.5% hard-contact rate, and 16.7% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers. The power has been there all season and should continue to be front-and-center for Seager, especially while at home. The Rangers' ballpark is showing to be the fourth-best for home runs this season, which is always an added bonus.
He will be up against Karl Kauffmann, who will be making his MLB debut for the Colorado Rockies. Through 37.0 innings at Triple-A this season, Kauffmann has a very modest 14.9% strikeout rate, 1.22 HR/9, .383 BABIP, and 5.78 xFIP. There's not much to worry about when it comes to Kauffman; he's really just a run-of-the-mill pitcher the Rockies need for a start.
In short, I'm not worried about this pitcher, and I trust Seager. As usual, I'm also adding Seager To Record an RBI (+120).
Sandy Alcantara Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100)
The reigning NL Cy Young winner, Sandy Alcantara, has a juicy matchup for his strikeout prop tonight.
We get one of the best pitchers in the league with a prop at even money, so let's jump in. Alcantara is carrying a 22.9% strikeout rate, 13.7% swinging-strike rate, and 3.88 xFIP. He's great at what he does and has been putting that on full display with his two most recent games, where he posted a 28.1% strikeout rate in each of them.
He has shown this type of upside throughout the season, racking up nine strikeouts in three of his last five starts. That level of production is on the table tonight against the San Francisco Giants, who come in with a 24.9% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the third-worst in the league.
With the recent form Alcantara has shown, this favorable matchup should allow him to cruise to the over.
Yordan Alvarez To Record 2+ Total Bases (-110)
Whenever we get an elite hitter at near even money, I'm taking it 10 times out of 10.
Yordan Alvarez is a perennial MVP candidate, and his props on a nightly basis offer a level of consistency that can be tough to find in a sport like baseball. With the Houston Astros carrying a slate-high 5.66 implied run total, they should have plenty of players on the base paths and give plenty of chances for Alvarez at the plate.
Alvarez comes in with a 141 wRC+, .375 wOBA, .240 ISO, 47.1% fly-ball rate, and 35.3% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. Despite this being a lefty-lefty matchup, there are no worries for Alvarez because he eventually gets to face the Oakland Athletics' bullpen, which is among the worst in the league.
He will be taking on starter Ken Waldichuk, who has allowed a .377 wOBA, .500 SLG, 6.51 xFIP, 1.59 HR/9, 38.9% fly-ball rate, and 44.4% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. This matchup is too good for Alvarez at only -110 odds.