Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Will Smith To Hit a Home Run (+400)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have a 5.03 implied run total tonight and have the power to exceed that quickly.
With power up and down their lineup, the Dodgers are a frequent target for MLB player props since they offer a level of consistency and upside. That is what we see tonight with their matchup against the Los Angeles Angels, who will have Griffin Canning on the mound.
This season, Canning allows a .455 SLG, 1.95 HR/9, 37.9% fly-ball rate, and 39.8% hard-contact rate to right-handed hitters. He is right at the 40-40 line for pitchers I like to target for home runs, which puts the Dodgers in an elite spot tonight -- not that they need the help.
We'll turn to Will Smith, who has a great combination of power and solid odds tonight. He comes in with a 135 wRC+, .371 wOBA, .190 ISO, 40.1% fly-ball rate, and 35.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. That's very clear power for Smith, who bats in the heart of the Dodgers' lineup, putting him in a spot to see good pitches. As usual, I'm adding Smith To Record an RBI (+130).
Alex Verdugo To Record 2+ Hits (+145)
With a slate-high 6.15 implied run total, the Boston Red Sox are a clear team to target for offense tonight.
A matchup against the Oakland Athletics' pitching staff puts any opposing team in a great spot and tonight, that is the Red Sox. A massive implied team total means they should see several players crossing home plate, which means getting runners on base.
This has me going to Alex Verdugo, who is a bit of an old-school hitter at the plate. He comes in with a super-low 11.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitches, along with a 136 wRC+, .374 wOBA, .324 BABIP, .201 ISO, and a 39.2% hard-contact rate. By 'old school', I mean that he is very disciplined at the plate with that low strikeout rate and is constantly putting the ball in play to pick up his.
He isn't a massive power hitter but consistent and even across the board. Tonight, he can put that on display against Luis Medina, who comes in allowing a .340 wOBA, .425 SLG, 4.58 xFIP, .300 BABIP, and has a low 19.6% strikeout rate versus left-handed hitters.
It's all good stuff for Verdugo, who should be able to grab two hits tonight.
Adolis Garcia To Record an RBI (+100)
The Texas Rangers are the league's highest-scoring offense, so getting an RBI prop from them just makes sense.
The Rangers have a 5.43 implied run total tonight and a very favorable matchup against Trevor Williams, who simply isn't a good pitcher.
Williams comes in allowing a .503 SLG, 4.27 xFIP, 2.40 HR/9, 41.8% fly-ball rate, and .342 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season. This is nothing we need to worry about, and with the power in the Rangers' lineup, they could pile up the runs quickly.
Adolis Garcia is our guy tonight with his 128 wRC+, .356 wOBA, .265 ISO, 48.9% fly-ball rate, and 47.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.
Power on top of power on top of fly balls put Garcia in an awesome matchup tonight.