Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Willy Adames To Hit a Home Run (+255)
The Milwaukee Brewers have a great matchup today to get their offense rolling.
They are taking on Chris Flexen of the Seattle Mariners, presenting several of the Brewers' hitters with a favorable matchup. Last season, Flexen allowed a .345 wOBA, .479 SLG, 5.24 xFIP, 1.65 HR/9, 49.0% fly-ball rate, and 36.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.
Adames was solid last season versus right-handed pitchers, sporting a 115 wRC+, .334 wOBA, .236 ISO, 44.1% fly-ball rate, and 34.4% hard-contact rate in the split. This is truly a great matchup for Adames and the Brewers' offense, who have plenty of power to puts Flexen in a tough spot.
Loving this matchup overall, and I'm adding Adames To Record an RBI (-110).
Merrill Kelly Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-106)
When it comes to strikeout props, I'm rolling with under 4.5 strikeouts for Merrill Kelly.
Simply put, Kelly isn't that good of a pitcher. He's just fine and can get the job done in the right matchup, but that doesn't appear to be the case tonight against the St. Louis Cardinals. Last season, Kelly had a 22.0% strikeout rate, which was just a touch lower than the league average of 22.4%. This season, he's at a 23.4% strikeout rate, putting him in line with what we've seen from him.
However, the big change this season is his walk rate. Last year, it was at 7.6%, which was actually lower than the league average of 8.2%. This season, his walk rate is up to 18.8%, which is a disaster. Yes, this comes from a small sample, but it doesn't seem like he has control over the strikezone to start the season.
I say all of this and haven't even mentioned that the Cardinals don't present an easy matchup for pitchers. The Cardinals have a 21.4% strikeout rate versus righties this season, which is the ninth-lowest. They are disciplined at the plate and don't give away free chances to pitchers.
Ronald Acuna To Record 2+ Total Bases (-115)
We get one of the best hitters in the league at nearly even money.
Ronald Acuna would be that hitter, and -115 odds for 2+ total bases is about as good as we're going to get. He has a matchup against Ryan Weathers, a pitcher we can look to target with right-handed hitters.
Weathers, a lefty, has been up and down for the San Diego Padres since 2019, so we'll look at his career numbers. In this time, he has allowed a .360 wOBA, .495 SLG, 4.90 xFIP, 1.87 HR/9, 36.6% fly-ball rate, and 37.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.
There's not much encouraging about that stat line, and with a strong Atlanta Braves lineup on the other side, it could be a quick outing for Weathers.
When it comes to Acuna, he had solid numbers last season versus lefties with a 102 wRC+, .317 wOBA, 37.5% hard-contact rate, and 31.3% fly-ball rate.