Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Nolan Arenado To Hit a Home Run (+280)
It's time for Nolan Arenado to hit his first home run of the season.
The St. Louis Cardinals have a juicy 5.27 implied run total today at home and are set to face Dylan Dodd from the Atlanta Braves. Dodd is making his MLB debut, which means we are dealing with a lack of stats. However, we can look at some of his minor-league numbers to get a bit of an idea.
Last year, he pitched a total of 6.2 innings in Triple-A, which isn't much to take note of. He also pitched 46.1 innings in Double-A and 89.0 innings in A+ for the Braves last season. In Triple-A, he allowed a 66.7% fly-ball rate, albeit in a very small sample size. In Double-A, he allowed a 42.7% fly-ball rate. In A+, he allowed a 29.2% fly-ball rate.
Seeing the fly-ball rate increase as he moved higher up the minor league system isn't an encouraging sign for him. I say all this and haven't mentioned the fact we will see 15-20 mph winds blowing out to left field in St. Louis tonight.
What does this all mean? A pitcher is making his debut in less-than-ideal conditions versus a powerful Cardinals lineup. Simply put, I'm siding with the elite and experienced hitter in Arenado over a rookie pitcher.
Last season, Arenado had a 160 wRC+, .394 wOBA, .366 ISO, 61.0% fly-ball rate, and 33.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. As always, I'm looking to add Arenado To Record an RBI (-120).
Randy Arozarena To Record an RBI (+100)
The Tampa Bay Rays are off to a hot start this season and have a favorable matchup to continue that tonight.
With a 5.01 implied run total, the Rays are expected to keep their offense going against Chad Kuhl. To put things simply, Kuhl struggled last season versus right-handed hitters to the tune of a .508 SLG, 4.57 xFIP, 1.55 HR/9, 39.0% fly-ball rate, and 33.6% hard-contact rate. That puts any opposing offense in a good spot, which means the Rays should be piling up the runs.
We turn to Randy Arozarena, who finished last season with 115 wRC+, .322 wOBA, .167 ISO, and .416 SLG versus right-handed pitchers. Arozarena hits near the top of the lineup for the Rays and will have plenty of chances to drive in some runs against a weak pitcher.
Matt Chapman To Record 2+ Total Bases (+120)
Finally, we turn to another big offense in the Toronto Blue Jays with a slate-high 5.54 implied run total tonight.
The offenses should be out in full force for several teams tonight, and the Blue Jays are always a team that can pile up the runs. We have another game with 20 mph winds blowing out to left field, too, which is always a benefit for hitters.
The Kansas City Royals will have Kris Bubic on the mound, a pitcher who presents a very favorable matchup for essentially all Blue Jays hitters. Last season, Bubic allowed a 4.24 xFIP, 1.05 HR/9, .436 SLG, and .346 wOBA to right handed-hitters.
The Blue Jays roll out a very right-handed lineup, and we could see the ball flying early and often given this favorable matchup. This is where Matt Chapman comes into the fold with a great prop on top of this great matchup.
Last season, Chapman had a 115 wRC+, .328 wOBA, .179 ISO, 40.8% fly-ball rate, and 35.5% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. Given the wind and the matchup, Chapman has one of the best chances to produce on tonight's slate.