Basketball is the most consistent sport for daily fantasy purposes.
A top slugger in baseball will have his fair share of 0-for-4 days, and an elite fantasy football player is at risk of having games where his team's offense is shut down.
A high-salaried NBA stud is generally going to get his, though. With so many possessions in a game providing opportunities to produce, top fantasy basketball options will be posting high scores just about every night.
While this consistency puts us in an excellent position to identify top plays, it also means you can't afford to miss when you're paying up for someone. Even with strong value plays in your lineup, paying up and getting a dud will likely leave your lineup drawing pretty close to dead.
Which top players should be the focal points of your lineups today?
Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers ($11,800)
A 53-point, 12-rebound outburst squashed the notion Joel Embiid wasn't going to maintain his performance level when James Harden returned.
Even in the tiny three-game sample, Embiid has maintained a gaudy 39.3% usage rate, which would lead the league if projected out to a full-season mark. Harden has a massive usage rate (34.7%), too. Both are just now in a unique floor situation during their tenure in Philadelphia as they roll on without Tyrese Maxey.
This five-game slate has both Embiid and Anthony Davis, so it wouldn't be a shocker to see either in the perfect lineup. I just prefer Embiid's matchup even with a lower game total (229.0) than Davis' (235.5). JoJo gets to attack a Sacramento squad that's allowed the 5th-most paint points per game (52.6) and 12th-most rebounds per game to opposing centers (15.2).
All in all, he seems to be the top star of the day.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, SF/PF, Bucks ($11,600)
The Bucks could be a bit shorthanded tonight.
Jrue Holiday is questionable to play through an illness, which could leave Giannis Antetokounmpo without his best backcourt player. At least in terms of fantasy basketball, that's been a great thing for him.
During floor situations without Jrue, Giannis is averaging 59.3 FanDuel points per 36 minutes on a whopping 40.2% usage rate.
There's a sizable 233.5-point total in this game -- one that could be an NBA Finals preview tonight. The Golden State Warriors are in town, and in addition to playing at the league's top pace, the Dubs have struggled defensively away from Chase Center.
Their 119.2 defensive rating is second-worst in the NBA ahead of only San Antonio. That's not good news against the Bucks, who should also have Khris Middleton in the fold again. He missed Sunday with an ankle issue.
Facing a poor defense and with his catch-and-shoot companion back in the fold, Giannis could threaten for a hefty triple-double in this one.
Stephen Curry, PG, Warriors ($9,900)
It's -- more than likely -- not going to be optimal to pair Harden with Embiid, so we may have to think outside of the box.
Stephen Curry, in the same game as Giannis, is that. He won't pop in any projection models or recent box scores, but now well below his median salary this year, Curry can still explode in this national television spot.
In December, Curry's fantasy results have plummeted. While most would attribute that to Jordan Poole's insertion into the starting lineup, I don't see that as the primary cause. Curry's 28.8% usage rate is still more than serviceable despite being behind both Poole (33.4%) and Klay Thompson (28.9%) in this short time. His season-long rate (30.6%) also isn't too far off.
Steph's shot has been the bigger issue. He's shooting a disastrous 41.3% from the field (for him) compared to his season-long mark of 50.3%. He'll turn that around before too long.
No doubt, Curry will be contrarian on Tuesday. In tournaments on a five-game slate, I'm always intrigued by a mostly-ignored player with the talent, role, and explosive ability he still has.