Basketball is the most consistent sport for daily fantasy purposes.
A top slugger in baseball will have his fair share of 0-for-4 days, and an elite fantasy football player is at risk of having games where his team's offense is shut down.
A high-salaried NBA stud is generally going to get his, though. With so many possessions in a game providing opportunities to produce, top fantasy basketball options will post high scores just about every night.
While this consistency puts us in an excellent position to identify top plays, it also means you can't afford to miss when you're paying up for someone. Even with strong value plays in your lineup, paying up and getting a dud will likely leave your lineup drawing pretty close to dead.
Which top players should be the focal points of your lineups today?
Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF/SF, Bucks ($11,900)
In a normal part of the season, Giannis Antetokounmpo might not be the best daily fantasy play on paper. I think he works on Tuesday.
The 13.0-point spread in Washington is large, but it's actually just the fifth-largest spread on the slate. If the Bucks' affair does stay tight enough to push Giannis over 30 minutes, the results could be explosive.
Milwaukee will rest both Khris Middleton (knee) and Grayson Allen (ankle) for this one, and Middleton's absence is especially impactful for Giannis. He's averaged 61.0 FanDuel points per 36 minutes with Middleton off the floor this season, including an effort of 38 points, 17 rebounds, and 12 assists last week against Indiana.
The Wizards have most of their core starters out of a lost season, and it's been pretty dismal lately. Since March 15th, Washington's 120.0 defensive rating is the sixth-worst mark in the NBA.
All of these tanking teams will produce plenty of value plays to afford a top guy; Giannis fits that description perfectly.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, SG/PG, Thunder ($10,600)
I don't think anyone had Thunder-Warriors on April 4th as a relevant contest for the NBA's play-in tournament, but it absolutely is.
OKC currently has the final play-in spot in the West, and Golden State is desperately clawing to avoid the tournament altogether. As a result, we've got top-shelf motivation in a game with a 242.0-point total. Yes, please.
It's actually flown a bit under the radar how excellent Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been for Oklahoma City since the break. He's eclipsed 30 real-life points in 11 of the 12 contests, which is just an absurd scoring floor for a player also averaging 5.48 assists and 2.70 stocks (steals plus blocks) per 36 minutes.
If he doesn't quite get to a value score of 5.00, he's been close. It's in environments like these where he's shined, eclipsing 55 FanDuel points in 5 of the aforementioned 12 games. All five games had a projected total above 232 points.
If OKC is to keep up with the Dubs at Chase Center as expected, he'll be a huge reason why.
Domantas Sabonis, PF/C, Kings ($10,000)
It wasn't that long ago that this salary would have been absurd for Domantas Sabonis.
Sabonis had eclipsed 48 FanDuel points in 9 of his 10 contests to start the month of March, but blowouts and tough shooting nights have kept him below that mark in each of his last five games. Wholistically, Domas should still be a modest bet here, averaging 47.4 FanDuel points per 36 on the entire year.
This matchup might bring that ceiling out of him once again. There's a 236.5-point total on deck as the Kings visit the Pelicans in a game with seeding implications for each. The Pels have allowed the ninth-most FanDuel points per game to centers this season.
The top tier of bigs is expectedly loaded on a slate this large with Anthony Davis, Pascal Siakam, and Bam Adebayo all meriting consideration. In his game environment, Sabonis could reach a ceiling (per dollar of salary) higher than any of them.