Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place live in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Josh Giddey Under 1.5 Made Threes (-113)
This line has a -113 price on both sides, but there are a lot of reasons to favor the under on Josh Giddey's made threes prop.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have been excellent at preventing three-point tries down the stretch. Over the last 15 games of the regular season, no team gave up fewer three-point attempts than Minnesota, who held the opposition to a 31.7% three-point attempt rate in that time.
That three-point D was especially tight on guards as Minnesota permitted just 2.6 made threes per game to the shooting guard position over the regular season's last 30 games.
On top of all that, Giddey isn't a high-volume three-point shooter. For the year, he averaged only 1.0 made threes per night on 3.1 attempts. He is a career 29.5% shooter from deep through two seasons.
Our model has Giddey going 1.3 of 4.3 from beyond the arc tonight.
I also don't mind the under on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's made threes prop, which is set at 0.5 with a +172 price on the under. He went without a made three in half of his last six games.
Jimmy Butler Over 40.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-113)
I think we see Jimmy Butler try to take over from the jump tonight.
Butler was plagued by poor shooting last time out as he went 6 of 19 from the field. He also pulled down only four rebounds, 1.9 below his season-long average. It was an off-game, and I don't think that happens again in a win-or-go-home spot.
The positive from that game was that Butler played 38 minutes, his most since March 11th. That's what Butler does in the postseason. A year ago, he averaged 33.9 minutes per game in the regular season and averaged 37.0 minutes in the playoffs. He will likely push for 40-some minutes today, and that's obviously a good thing for this bet.
Something else Butler usually does in the playoffs is ramp up his usage. He recorded a 26.5% usage rate last regular season and then generated a 29.1% usage rate in the playoffs.
Admittedly, our model doesn't back me on this one. But I like Butler to carry the load for Miami, and I think this prop is a good way to take advantage of that.
Jaylin Williams Over 5.5 Rebounds (-128)
I'm going to wait to see if Rudy Gobert plays before placing this bet. As long as Gobert suits up, I like this one as Jaylin Williams will be needed to combat Gobert on the interior, which should result in good minutes for the Oklahoma City Thunder center.
Williams has snagged at least six rebounds in five of his last seven games. He averaged 9.5 rebounds per 36 minutes for the year. The concern with Williams is whether or not he'll see enough minutes to get to this over, but that's not as much of a worry if Gobert suits up.
Despite the size they possess, the Minnesota Timberwolves surrendered 14.9 rebounds per game to centers over the last 30 contests, a mark slightly above the league average.
We have Williams pegged for 6.6 rebounds tonight.