Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
CJ McCollum Under 12.5 Rebounds and Assists (-113)
Tonight, the New Orleans Pelicans are hosting the San Antonio Spurs, the worst team by defensive rating in the NBA.
But they'll be without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. So, while an extra offensive burden will be placed on CJ McCollum, his rebounds and assists prop are too high, according to numberFire's model.
The algorithm here anticipates 4.5 rebounds and 6.0 assists for McCollum for a total of 10.5 rebounds plus assists. At that projection, we should assume around a 70.1% chance he stays under the 13 he'd need to make the over cash.
The Pelicans, without Williamson and Ingram on the floor, have just a 104.6 offensive rating, so the assists may not be there for McCollum.
Now, it's true that he averaged 10.0 assists per game in the two games earlier this season without Williamson and Ingram. However, he did so on 13.0 potential assists, meaning he had a lot of assist luck on his passes.
The Pelicans have converted 56.6% of potential assists into actual assists this season (a normal rate). The 20-of-26 clip is a 76.9% conversion rate. Assuming a more normal success rate on potential assists, McCollum would have seen his assist numbers fall from 10.0 in that two-game sample to around 7.3. Even that plus his projected rebounds would put us on the under.
Deni Avdija Under 18.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-102)
Deni Avdija's numbers are also too high, according to the model.
numberFire projects Avdija for a line of 7.9 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2.4 assists for a total of 16.0, a full 2.5 stat tallies short of this prop.
Avdija, then, can be considered around 71.0% likely to stay under this prop.
Although the Utah Jazz are just 26th in defensive rating, they allow only 23.3 assists per game, the 6th-fewest in the NBA.
Namely, they're sixth in two-point assist frequency and first in three-point assist frequency all while being within shouting distance of the NBA average in rebounds per game allowed.
Jarred Vanderbilt Over 7.5 Rebounds (-118)
Here's a pretty noticeable differentiation between our projections (9.0) and the prop (7.5) for Jarred Vanderbilt's rebounding numbers.
Vanderbilt has averaged 8.2 rebounds per game over 24.8 minutes per contest and is projected to get to 27.3 minutes while Kelly Olynyk misses this matchup.
His per-minute rebounding rate (0.330) would lead to a projection of 9.0 if he hits the 27.3 projected minutes he's slated for.
Also, the Washington Wizards are a below-average rebounding team by rebounding rate.
With his 9.0-rebound projection, Vanderbilt can be considered 64.9% likely to go over (i.e. odds of -184).