Tuesday's 12-game slate has a pair of high-salaried pitchers we'll want to save cap space for, though several talented pitchers are taking the mound tonight. As is usually the case, Coors Field is a headliner for stacks, but there are some notable offenses in great spots elsewhere, too.
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Pitching Breakdown
Not only is Mitch Keller ($11,300) one of just a handful of pitchers cracking a 30% strikeout rate tonight, but he gets a matchup against the Athletics to go along with it.
While Keller had a solid campaign in 2022, he's really ramped things up this year with a 3.10 SIERA, 30.4% strikeout rate, and 5.6% walk rate. His strikeout rate has jumped over 10 percentage points higher compared to last season, aided by a new cutter he added this offseason and an elite slider.
While his swinging-strike rate still doesn't lead off the page, his 29.9% called-plus-swinging-strike rate ranks 11th among qualified starters, making it easier to buy into the improvements. Keller's logged at least eight strikeouts in seven straight starts.
And then it's the same old story for Oakland. Against right-handers, they have the third-worst wRC+ (83) and fourth-worst strikeout rate (25.1%) among active rosters. Understandably, their implied team total is one of the night's lowest (3.43).
Kevin Gausman ($11,100) is in a more difficult matchup against Houston, but it's hardly enough to prevent him from being the best alternative to Keller. Gausman's 32.9% strikeout rate is one of the slate's best marks, and his 2.91 SIERA tops the board.
He's logged double-digit strikeouts five times this year, and in those starts, he's accumulated 52, 64, 64, 49, and 63 FanDuel points. He also has one of the best workloads, tallying 102, 115, 106, and 115 pitches over his last four. The ceiling is through the roof.
That being said, the Astros' active roster owns a 21.8% strikeout rate versus righties, which is why Gausman remains behind Keller in the pecking order. But Houston's otherwise been a middle-of-the-road offense this year, so the 32-year-old could still post a big score if he takes advantage of his hefty pitch counts and goes seven-plus innings.
After those two, we have Hunter Brown ($10,300), Logan Gilbert ($9,800), and James Paxton ($9,400), with the latter two coming at nice salary discounts compared to Keller and Gausman. All three come in with strikeout rates above 28%, and Paxton actually leads the slate at 33.8% (excluding opener John Brebbia).
Brown has been fantastic, but he's a tougher sell versus the Blue Jays, a brutal opponent for right-handers. Toronto's active roster has a 116 wRC+ and 20.7% strikeout rate in the split, and their 4.26 implied team total isn't very encouraging when doling out over $10,000. While we shouldn't write him off completely, he's arguably more of a fringe piece.
On paper, Gilbert is also in a less-than-ideal matchup against San Diego, but the underachieving Padres have a 95 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching this year along with a 23.9% strikeout rate. Pitch count might be Gilbert's biggest concern, though, as he exceeded 91 pitches just once in the month of May. His fantasy scores tend to max out in the high 40s, which might not be enough on a larger slate. Again, he's another one who's in play but probably shouldn't be a priority.
Paxton now has four starts under his belt, and the underlying metrics are mostly promising. In addition to that hefty strikeout rate, he's put up a 3.35 SIERA, and his 8.8% walk rate is manageable. His workload has been surprisingly robust, too, as he's reached 100 pitches twice already. Home runs have been his biggest issue (1.89 per 9 innings), and that could remain a problem considering his 21.7% ground-ball rate.
His matchup versus Cleveland is a mixed bag. The Guardians are a terrible opponent for strikeouts (18.2% versus lefties), but they also have a pitiful .126 ISO in the split, so they're far less likely to cash in on Paxton's home run problems. The wind is also blowing in tonight at Progressive Field.
It's difficult to say what kind of upside Paxton possesses -- both in general and in this particular game -- putting him in a similar boat as Brown and Gilbert. But at a lower salary and what will likely be minuscule popularity, he could have some tournament appeal.
Joe Musgrove ($8,300) and Clarke Schmidt ($7,700) are the most intriguing value plays. Musgrove has average-ish peripheral numbers, but he's got a high-strikeout matchup against Seattle (25.1% versus righties), and the Mariners have one of the worst implied team totals (3.51), as well. Schmidt's 26.0% strikeout rate falls just below the top talents of the slate, and he has a plus matchup against the White Sox. The concern with Schmidt is that he has wonky pitch counts and has gone six innings only once all year.
Hitting Breakdown
TheSan Francisco Giants are the obvious first place to look on the hitting side, as they get the combination of Coors Field and Dinelson Lamet.
Following a stint in the minors, Lamet has entered theColorado Rockies' rotation, and his first turn didn't go swimmingly at Arizona, allowing five earned runs in just three innings. Even if we chalk that up to some poor BABIP luck, he struggled out of the bullpen earlier in the season, too, and over 13 2/3 innings, he's now at a 4.96 SIERA, 23.3% strikeout rate, and 16.4% walk rate.
Most of the Giants' top bats come at salaries in the mid-$3000 range, including Joc Pederson ($3,500), J.D. Davis ($3,600), LaMonte Wade Jr ($3,400), Mike Yastrzemski ($3,400), and Mitch Haniger ($3,300). While that makes them a little tougher to pair with a Keller or Gausman, it should be doable.
On the other side, Colorado will get a San Francisco bullpen game with John Brebbia opener, and left-hander Sean Manaea is expected to get the bulk of innings. Manaea has allowed 2.49 home runs per 9 innings to righties this year, but the current state of the Rockies makes it difficult to form a full stack that can take advantage of this. It's Coors Field, so you never know, butRandal Grichuk ($3,600) might be the one guy who stands out tonight.
TheLos Angeles Dodgers have far more high-salaried bats, but they could be worth squeezing in versus Luke Weaver at Great American Ball Park. The Dodgers have a Coors-esque 5.90 implied team total.
Weaver's 3.96 SIERA suggests he hasn't been so bad, but he's getting obliterated by home runs (2.27 per 9 innings), something he's struggled with in years past, as well. While he's allowing bombs to both sides of the plate, his strikeout rate plummets to 17.4% versus lefties, which is a weakness we can absolutely exploit with the Dodgers.
Freddie Freeman ($4,200) andMax Muncy ($3,800) are the clear spend-up plays, and then we haveJames Outman ($2,900), Jason Heyward ($2,600), andDavid Peralta ($2,400) as possible value lefties depending on who starts.
Carlos Carrasco has gotten better results lately, but he still isn't getting punchouts, which could spell disaster for him against theAtlanta Braves. Over six outings, Carrasco has produced a middling 5.40 SIERA, 13.9% strikeout rate, and 9.5% walk rate, and it's fair to wonder how much he has left in the tank at age 36.
There are plenty of low-salaried plays in this lineup if you can't get up to the top guys, too. Austin Riley ($3,100), Ozzie Albies ($3,000), Marcell Ozuna ($2,900), and Eddie Rosario ($2,700)can all be pieces of a value stack.
The Texas Rangers, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Pittsburgh Piratesare some other teams with high implied team totals, and the Chicago Cubsalso have a good matchup.
The Rangers will face 23-year-old Matthew Liberatore. The left-hander has promising Triple-A numbers this season, but at the next level, he still looks like the same guy we saw last year. He now has a 5.04 SIERA, 17.5% strikeout rate, and 11.4% walk rate over 45 2/3 career MLB innings.
The D-backs and Pirates both draw matchups against pitchers with poor control -- among other things. Arizona should be able to dice up Jake Irvin and his 5.64 SIERA, 17.7% strikeout rate, and 13.7% walk rate. Pittsburgh get James Kaprielian, who's allowing 1.67 home runs per 9 innings off a 51.3% fly-ball rate -- and we know how bad that Oakland bullpen is, too.
Finally, the Cubbies could have an entire lineup of right-handed bats against lefty Tyler Anderson. Anderson's produced a 6.18 xFIP and 13.3% strikeout rate versus righties this year.