Nailing the pitcher slot is the first step to having success in MLB DFS on FanDuel.
While it's possible to cash if you get a bad outing from a starter, it's markedly easier to do so when you get a good or excellent showing from your pitcher, and it's darn near impossible to take down a contest without a big score from your hurler.
Weighing the importance of a pitcher's skill, salary, matchup and park factors is the game within the game in MLB DFS. This piece is your home for a breakdown of the top pitching options on today's slate.
All betting references come from the MLB lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Top-Tier Options
Shohei Ohtani, Angels ($11,400)
With a soft matchup against the Kansas City Royals, Ohtani is a clear top option tonight.
Ohtani is elite across the board and carries a high strikeout ceiling, giving him immense fantasy upside. To this point in the season, Ohtani has a 32.9% strikeout rate, 12.8% strikeout rate, 32.0% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%), 28.2% hard-contact rate, and 0.0% barrel rate. His 15.9% walk rate can be rather concerning, but he's been able to limit the damage thus far.
Ohtani carries double-digit strikeout potential any time he is on the mound, and if he can limit the walks tonight, the sky is truly the limit for him.
The Royals come in with a 25.0% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers this season, which is the eighth-highest in the league. On top of that, they are also lacking power with a .113 ISO (29th) and 61 wRC+ (29th), putting them among the worst in the league. The matchup is ideal, and while Ohtani has the highest salary on the slate, he's worth every bit of it for your fantasy lineups.
Aaron Nola, Phillies ($9,300)
Nola is another elite option with a great matchup against the Colorado Rockies tonight.
The Rockies are a below-average offense to begin with, and when you look at their numbers away from Coors Field, they are even worse. Combine that with the skill Nola has on the other side, and we are looking at a lopsided matchup with plenty of fantasy potential for Nola.
This season, when the Rockies are away versus right-handed pitchers, they have a 27.0% strikeout rate (7th), .141 ISO (23rd), 75 wRC+ (27th), and 26.3% hard-contact rate (29th). Each of those numbers is worse on the road compared to when they are at home.
When it comes to Nola, he's off to a modest start this season but has been a dominant pitcher over the last few years. In 2022, Nola had a 29.1% strikeout rate, a 3.6% walk rate, 0.83 HR/9 allowed, a 2.77 xFIP, 29.8% hard-contact rate, and a 12.6% swinging-strike rate. His numbers are a bit lower this season, but this is the type of matchup to help get him back to his elite level.
Tournament Option
Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks ($10,000)
Finding a pitcher for tournaments is a combination of upside and potential popularity.
This combo can help vault you to the top of leaderboards, and that's what we potentially have with Gallen tonight. Right from the jump, it doesn't appear Gallen will be popular due to his matchup versus the San Diego Padres combined with the fact that Nola -- mentioned above -- is lower-salaried and has an easier matchup.
That's a key first step for me, and I love shooting for the player that is going to be flying under the radar. The Padres have power in their lineup versus righties with a .164 ISO (12th), 31.9% hard-contact rate (10th), and 41.5% fly-ball rate (3rd). But -- and it's a big but -- they have a 25.7% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the third-highest in the league.
Gallen has looked good this season with a 29.5% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate, 3.12 xFIP, 11.6% swinging-strike rate, and 27.9% hard-contact rate. He has some serious potential on the mound, and if he isn't going to be popular, he makes for a great tournament option tonight.
Low-Salary Play
George Kirby, Mariners ($8,500)
If you're looking to roll the dice a bit tonight, Kirby from the Seattle Mariners could be the answer.
A lower-salaried pitcher is always beneficial when you are looking to load up on hitters or stacks for some tournament lineups. Kirby will be up against the St. Louis Cardinals, who come in with a 3.77 implied run total tonight, which is the sixth-lowest on the slate.
This game is in Seattle, which is one of the worst hitter's parks in the league -- and a boost for any pitcher on the bump. Kirby made his MLB debut last season and posted a 24.5% strikeout rate, 3.33 xFIP, 31.4% hard-contact rate, 4.1% walk rate, and 0.90 HR allowed. While those aren't massive numbers, they are all very solid and put him in a spot to have consistent outings.
This season, his strikeout rate is a bit lower (17.1%), but his walk rate is crazy low (1.4%), an he's also amassed 0.54 HR/9, a 3.6% barrel rate, a 28.6% hard-contact rate, and a 4.22 xFIP. If he can get that strikeout rate to where it was last season, he's going to be a solid option when he's on the slate.
When it comes to the Cardinals, they are struggling on the road this season versus right-handed pitchers with a 22.7% strikeout rate (15th), .128 ISO (27th), 90 wRC+ (24th), and 33.0% fly-ball rate (27th). All of those are lower on the road compared to their home splits, making this the time to target them.