In a traditional FanDuel NBA lineup, you have a $60,000 salary cap to roster nine players. The salary cap is the same in the single-game setup, but the lineup requirements are different.
You select five players of any position. One of your players will be your MVP, whose FanDuel points are multiplied by two. You also choose a STAR player (whose production is multiplied by 1.5) and a PRO (multiplied by 1.2). Two UTIL players round out the roster, and they don't receive a multiplier for their production.
This makes the five players you select essential in more than one way; you need to focus on slotting in the best plays in the multiplier slots rather than just nailing the best overall plays of the game.
Read this piece by Brandon Gdula for some excellent in-depth analysis on how to attack a single-game slate in NBA DFS.
Celtics-Hawks Overview
| Away | Home | GameTotal | AwayTotal | HomeTotal | AwayPace | HomePace |
| Boston | Atlanta | 232 | 119.5 | 112.5 | 20 | 9 |
No one was expecting a gem from this series, but we got one, even if it ends tonight.
This should be a really solid -- if not perfect -- environment for single-game NBA DFS. Each of the last four games has exceeded 225 total points, and the injury report features no rotational players for either squad.
There are also several viable options at MVP, and both of these teams variate the rotations enough to make all sorts of value options viable.
Player Breakdowns
At The Top
As the favorite, Boston's star duo of Jayson Tatum ($17,000) and Jaylen Brown ($14,000) should get plenty of attention.
As I've stated multiple times in multi-game helpers, they're an odd duo to project correctly. Despite the permanent gap in salary, their usage rate is usually close. In this series, Tatum (28.8% usage) has just edged out Brown (28.1%).
Both have underperformed their regular-season rates this series, too. Tatum has posted just 43.0 FanDuel points per 36 minutes, and Brown is at 37.0. Brown's overall draft rate should be higher, but at $3,000 less with a similar profile, he'll be a more contrarian MVP choice.
The only other two who make realistic sense at MVP are Atlanta's pair of studs, Trae Young ($16,500) and Dejounte Murray ($13,500). Young has exploded with at least 32 real-life points in each of the past three games. He's been the best overall fantasy player in this series.
However, I kind of want to take an angle against him tonight. Beyond pending adjustments to stop him, Young's usage rate drops 3.2 percentage points with Dejounte on the floor, and for his perimeter-centric shot diet, a 52.5 eFG% is pretty absurd and will likely regress at some point.
Returning from his suspension, Murray might be my favorite tournament choice at MVP. At probably next-to-no draft percentage at that spot, he's outpaced both Brown and Tatum at 47.8 FanDuel points per 36. With a cold Trae night, it's absolutely in Murray's range of outcomes to shine above the other three.
In The Middle
The Celtics' guard rotation is in constant flux, which greatly affects some of the candidates for other multiplier spots and flex plays.
Derrick White ($11,500) is consistently at the head of the playing time, logging more than 30 minutes in every game this series. Interestingly, Marcus Smart ($11,000) was limited to just 27 minutes in Game 5 in favor of more time for Malcolm Brogdon ($8,000).
White will be significantly more popular with minutes security, but I prefer Smart in tournaments. Smart's usage rate (20.4%) is higher than White's (18.5%) for the series.
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($10,500) has exceeded 30 minutes in only one game this series where Murray was active, so I see him as wildly over-salaried. He's also produced 11 stocks (steals plus blocks) in the series despite averaging just 1.45 per 36 minutes in the regular season. Fading him entirely is something I don't have much fear doing, and those are the stands you need to take in a single-game format.
Boston's bigs round out this section. Al Horford ($9,500) is logging 33.2 minutes per game in this series but has eclipsed 30 FanDuel points just once. Robert Williams ($9,000) has seen just 24.0 minutes per game, but that's trending in the right direction as Horford's ineffectiveness grows.
"Timelord," as we saw in Game 4, is a guy with massive double-double upside who averaged 2.45 stocks per 36 minutes in the regular season. He's an intriguing STAR or PRO option and shouldn't be too popular as a multiplier pick.
At The Bottom
This is the first single-game helper of the 2023 NBA Playoffs, but I don't think we'll get a more viable value tier the rest of the way.
The aforementioned Brogdon is down here, and he should be a popular choice after putting up at least 21 FanDuel points in four straight. However, keep this in mind when you're building -- if he's succeeding, it's likely at the expense of Brown, Smart, or White.
Though largely ineffective, De'Andre Hunter ($8,500) has logged more than 40 minutes in back-to-back games for Atlanta. You don't typically see those players below $9,000 getting that kind of run, but that's especially true when they've shown upside like Hunter. He dropped 27 real-life points in Game 4 and can definitely score.
Atlanta's confusing rotation of bigs can work, too. Clint Capela ($8,500) starts, but he's struggled in this series. He's yet to eclipse 12 points or 11 rebounds in a single game against Boston's tough interior. Because of this, Onyeka Okongwu ($7,500) actually closed Game 5, and he can destroy a slate with stocks (3.24 per 36 this regular season) if given extended opportunity.
John Collins ($8,000) could be an intriguing pivot off of Brogdon. I love the talent (31.8 FanDuel points per 36), and Capela's struggles in Game 5 earned Collins 30-plus minutes for the first time in this series.
I wouldn't go below Okongwu and Saddiq Bey ($7,500). While Bey's role seems to be fading from the box score, he closed Game 5 with the starting unit, and Atlanta has called on him before. Remember: he earned 33 minutes in Atlanta's play-in game (when Hunter struggled).