The season's final Thursday Night Football matchup pits the Dallas Cowboys against the Tennessee Titans in Nashville.
On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Cowboys are 10.5-point favorites in a game with a 40.5-point total. That makes the implied score 25.5-15.0 in favor of Dallas.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and we have projections for the single-game slate if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both of those things before you make your lineups.
MVP Candidates
Our projections point to a Dallas onslaught. Among the 10 highest-projected players for this single-game slate, eight of them are Cowboys. We have four Dallas players forecasted to produce at least 10.0 FanDuel points, led by quarterbackDak Prescott ($17,500 on FanDuel).
Prescott gets a soft matchup against a Titans defense that has gotten worse as the year has progressed. It's a pass-funnel defense, too. Tennessee is allowing the third-most FanDuel points per game to signal-callers (20.8). Our schedule-adjusted metrics rank the Titans fifth-worst against the pass and ninth-best versus the run. We have Dak scoring a slate-leading 18.5 FanDuel points, and he's an obvious top MVP option.
Much of what I just said also applies toCeeDee Lamb ($15,000). Tennessee is giving up a league-high 33.8 FanDuel points per game to receivers. Lamb should feast. He has scored at least 14.7 FanDuel points in four of his past six games, including a 29.0-point outburst last time out (10 catches, 120 yards and two scores) against a stout Philadelphia Eagles defense. A Dak-Lamb stack makes a lot of sense, and our model projects Lamb to score 14.2 FanDuel points.
A key thing to watch for this game is the status ofTony Pollard ($13,500), who didn't practice Monday or Tuesday but is reportedly expected to play. If Pollard suits up, both he andEzekiel Elliott ($13,000) are better suited for a flex spot. But if Pollard sits, Zeke would likely be thrust into a heavy workload, making him plenty viable as an MVP option. While Tennessee's run defense is stingy, the game script should lead to plenty of Dallas carries.
Derrick Henry ($16,000) is the clear top MVP for Tennessee -- assuming he plays, which is no lock. We project him for 16.6 FanDuel points, the second-most on the slate. He's scored a rushing tuddy in three straight, posting 17.6, 24.3 and 19.0 FanDuel points in that span. The Titans will likely ride him for as long as this game stays competitive.
On the flip side, there are reasons to be wary of Henry. While Henry is seeing more pass-game work, he is still dinged by negative game scripts, averaging 17.5 carries and 80.1 rushing yards per game in defeats this year, compared to 25.6 attempts and 112.6 rushing yards in wins. Dallas has permitted the third-fewest FanDuel points per game to running backs (16.6). I won't have much of Henry at MVP unless it seems like he's going completely overlooked.
Any quarterback is worth a look. Malik Willis ($14,000) won't be all that popular of an MVP play, and his running ability gives him access to a ceiling. He's run for at least 40 yards in two of his three starts. If he's forced to drop back more in this one, it may lead to more scrambles. Willis could hit as an under-the-radar MVP play if he gets it going as a runner. We project him to amass 12.2 FanDuel points.
Flex Breakdown
Outside of Henry and Willis, it's hard to feel good about anyone else on the Titans. We don't have another Tennessee player projected for more than 7.0 FanDuel points. Willis has thrown for 99, 80 and 55 passing yards in his three starts. That makes any of his pass-catchers a tough sell.
Our model has Treylon Burks ($11,000) and Robert Woods ($8,000) projected for 6.1 and 5.9 FanDuel points, respectively. Given their salaries, Woods is far more appealing. With that said, Burks offers some big-play juice and probably won't be very popular.
Chigoziem Okonkwo ($7,500) is a decent value play. The Titans' tight end has come on throughout the season. He came into last week with at least five targets in four consecutive games but saw only two looks with Willis under center.
Austin Hooper ($6,000),Hassan Haskins ($6,000) andNick Westbrook-Ikhine ($7,000) are nothing more than shot-in-the-dark dart throws. Haskins could be the starting running back if Henry sits, and he'd obviously be a smashing value in that scenario. But Haskins is still somewhat viable if Henry plays as he has a pair of targets in two straight games and could get more snaps if Tennessee falls into a big hole.
The Cowboys' secondary plays are much more enticing. Michael Gallup ($9,000), Dalton Schultz ($8,500) andNoah Brown ($7,000) are all projected for more than any Tennessee pass-catcher.
As I mentioned earlier, Tennessee is a fantastic matchup for receivers, and they are also surrendering the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends (11.2). Fading Lamb and pairing two -- or all three -- of these guys with Dak leaves you plenty of salary to jam in Henry and also helps you dodge what is likely Lamb chalk.
It's the same story with kickers and defenses -- the Dallas options are far better.
Our model really likes Brett Maher ($9,500). We project Maher to score 9.6 FanDuel points -- compared to a projection of 6.8 forRandy Bullock ($8,500) -- and rate him as the best point-per-dollar play among those salaried under $16,000.
TheDallas D/ST ($10,000) is a quality pick, as well. In limited action, Willis has put the ball on the ground three times and thrown three picks. Dallas' defense could make this a long night for the rookie, especially if the Titans have to go to the air a lot.