Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher or team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox
Orioles ML (-112)
It's a bit bizarre to believe, but the Orioles have the better offensive split and pitcher tonight against the White Sox despite the substantial payroll difference.
Baltimore's offense has been cooking to start the year, and even in their worse split against a righty, they've still posted a higher wRC+ (111) than the Pale Hose (94). Both clubs are starting right-handers, Baltimore's has been better, too.
Tyler Wells' 3.85 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) isn't bad at all for a guy with just a 10.3% swinging-strike rate. For what he lacks in whiffs, he makes up for it by limiting hard-hit baseballs (38.7% rate allowed).
Chicago's Mike Clevinger has an ERA (3.48) in Wells' vicinity, but the underlying peripherals reveal a more grim truth. His 5.43 SIERA is a product of more hard-hit balls (42.7%) and a lower whiff rate (7.5%).
With both key advantages in the Orioles' direction, we'll take them in this near pick 'em.
Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals
Over 9.0 (-104)
On a warm night with winds blowing out at Busch Stadium, we should see runs plated.
Pittsburgh's Johan Oviedo is coming off a career effort as he blanked the aforementioned White Sox, but he's going to have tougher days ahead with his current pitching level. Oviedo is allowing a pretty sizable hard-hit rate (45.9%) and still isn't striking out too many batters (18.0% strikeout rate).
Nonetheless, he may be the better pitcher tonight. Jake Woodford of the Cardinals has had a nightmarish start to the year, recording a 9.00 ERA that isn't seen as a huge fluke compared to a 5.02 SIERA. Woodford has never held a strikeout rate north of 19.0% in his career, so ceding a 50.0% hard-hit rate like he is might be a death knell to this latest MLB stint.
While this over is getting a modest 52% of bets, 85% of the money is on this side for good reason. St. Louis' 110 wRC+ in this split is excellent, and the Buccos' 91 wRC+ is a significant improvement over a year ago. Both offenses can torch these poor hurlers.
Colorado Rockies at Seattle Mariners
Under 8.5 (-118)
While Marco Gonzales and Austin Gomber don't sound like a low-scoring tandem of pitchers, they might turn into one tonight.
Both Colorado and Seattle sit in the bottom 10 of OPS against left-handed pitching to start the year. They've also struck out against lefties at the eighth- and third-highest clips, respectively, in this time. Can these mediocre lefties get the job done?
Well, Gonzales' 4.22 ERA is probably here to stay. He's been "due for regression" to his SIERA for four straight years but avoided that outcome in his results by allowing a low amount of hard contact. The Rockies' 34.1% hard-hit rate against lefties is one of their few strengths, so they could greatly struggle if the sinker-baller has it working.
As for Gomber, he's held a SIERA below 4.50 for back-to-back seasons and certainly has a better shot away from Coors Field. Gomber's strikeout rate in his career on the road (22.7%) has always been considerably higher than at Coors (18.7%).
This is another "Pros vs. Joes" betting spot. This under is getting just 41% of tickets with two "poor" pitchers on the bump, but 56% of the handle is on a potential pitcher's duel.