Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates ML (-116)
While I feel many bettors will like to jump on the better team in a vacuum as a road 'dog, Pittsburgh is rightfully favored here.
For me, it comes down to New York's Tylor Megill. He's been dreadful since returning from injury, compiling a 5.27 SIERA, a low 17.9% strikeout rate, and an elevated 11.9% walk rate in 12 appearances. Megill's free-pass issue is a problem when the Buccos walk at the 11th-highest rate in baseball against righties (9.3%).
Rich Hill isn't exactly appetizing on the other side, but his 4.42 SIERA, 21.6% strikeout rate, and 7.4% walk rate are all much better. Plus, this is the Mets' worse split of the two (.718 OPS; 12th-worst in MLB), and they could still be without Pete Alonso if his wrist bruise hasn't quite healed up.
Plus, as we get into the home stretch, the Pirates' bullpen (4.34 xFIP) has been a step or two ahead of the Mets' (4.48) all season.
Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians
Guardians ML (-106)
This is another line that could be a bit aided by injury. Yordan Alvarez is doubtful to play tonight due to a groin strain after swinging last night in Toronto, and you never want to rush those.
I've also supported lefty Logan Allen at several turns, and he's delivered. Allen's 2.73 ERA isn't the full story when he's rocking a 3.93 SIERA, but he's got legitimately great stuff (12.7% swinging strike rate) to carve up an Astros lineup with a not-so-menacing .761 OPS against southpaws since May 1st.
Houston will counter with Cristian Javier, who hasn't quite lived up to his sky-high expectations entering the year. The punchouts (26.4% rate) are still there, but his 3.88 SIERA is right in line with Allen's when I believe the perception is they've got a huge advantage on the bump tonight.
The Guardians' league-low 19.2% strikeout rate, in my opinion, makes them a unique test for the swing-and-miss-reliant Javier. If they can plate a few, Allen could coast through a weakened lineup on the other side.
Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants
Under 8.0 (-108)
The Cubs have quietly tumbled to one of the league's worst offenses against righties.
Since May 1st, they've got the league's worst wRC+ (77) in the split, and only Minnesota has whiffed at a higher rate than their 27.2% strikeout rate as a collective. They're a matchup that the pedestrian Anthony DeSclafani (4.31 SIERA) can handle, and they'll boost his otherwise-low 17.2% strikeout rate on this night.
Chicago's ace is a good case for this total on the other side, too. As a contact pitcher, Marcus Stroman's 3.91 SIERA will never be microscopic, but you love to see his flyball rate at 22.2%. When he's killing worms, that's how he's on, and he'll likely also get a jolt in the punchout department when San Francisco has an elevated 25.2% strikeout rate since May 1st themselves.
The Giants' .762 OPS against righties is no joke, but Stroman is an excellent one, and Chicago is as bad as it gets in this split. There's plenty of wiggle room in this total for the home team to plate a few.