Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher or team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
Under 7.5 (-115)
There's actually temperate weather in Minnesota today, but the pitchers dampen the forecast of a high-scoring affair at Target Field this afternoon.
The visiting White Sox will send Dylan Cease to the mound, and Cease is building upon his breakout 2022 campaign with a 2023 that's beginning in a better fashion. Through two starts, Cease has a 2.87 skill-interactive SIERA that's been accompanied by stellar marks in strikeout rate (40.1%) and swinging-strike rate (15.1%). He's been nothing short of dominant.
However, there's a reason to believe the Twins stay close, and said reason is Kenta Maeda. Maeda's first start since 2021 (due to an elbow issue) was a dandy, logging five scoreless innings with a 50.0% strikeout rate. Though it was just one game and it was against the Marlins, the ChiSox were blanked by Johan Oviedo yesterday and hold just a .131 isolated power (ISO) against righties thus far.
This matinee affair has a "Pros vs. Joes" betting split -- 68% of the bets are on the over, but 55% of the total handle is on the under. We'll follow the cash.
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
Marlins -1.5 (+136)
It's Sandy Day.
The Marlins seem to morph into a different squad with Sandy Alcantara on the mound. Last year, they were 19-13 in games he started and went 50-80 in all others. Alcantara's first shutout of 2023 is already in the barn, and he'll likely strive for another against a Phillies lineup with injuries in the middle.
This bet, though, is also a play on the Miami offense not being wholly disappointing, which is the risk that creates a +136 price on the runline. Thus far, the Fish have a 148 wRC+ against left-handed pitching (sixth-best in MLB) entering this date with Matt Strahm.
Strahm was fortunate to escape a date with the Yankees last time out. His five scoreless innings were accompanied by a 4.36 SIERA and 50.0% hard-hit rate, and the southpaw has a career 5.46 xFIP as a starter. He's a much better reliever (3.01 xFIP).
The Marlins' offense is perceived poorly but is having success in this split so far, so there's value in betting on a comfortable Miami win today.
Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Brewers Moneyline (+120)
This is an even matchup, but the moneyline isn't a pick'em, creating value on a Brewers road win tonight.
This isn't even a bet against Zac Gallen's slow start, although that makes me feel even better about this handicap. Gallen's 7.59 ERA is supported by a much better 4.76 SIERA, and his 10.8% swinging-strike rate is higher than his clip from last year. In short, he will likely be fine in the long run, but the short-term issue is a date with a Milwaukee offense that sports a sizzling 124 wRC+ versus righties.
Milwaukee will send out Wade Miley, a man who sends peripherals into a tailspin. His low strikeout rate in 2022 has held through his lone 2023 start (13.0%), but the sinkerballer just doesn't give up many hard-hit balls. Miley had just a 26.0% hard-hit rate in his debut, which is the patented, bat-breaking form you'd hope from him.
Given the Brew Crew's might against righties thus far, we can take the chance that Gallen's battle with the pitch clock limits his effectiveness a bit -- and that Miley doesn't implode on the other side.