Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals
Over 8.5 (-110)
We saw just three combined runs between these clubs last night. I might take over that in the first two innings today.
Washington's dreadful pitching roulette wheel lands on Patrick Corbin again this afternoon, and this 2023 version of the long-time struggling lefty might be the worst yet. He's posted a 4.90 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) with the lowest strikeout rate of his career (14.4%). He's also allowing an elevated 44.0% hard-hit rate.
The Cubs have a .851 OPS against lefties, the third-best mark in baseball. They figure to thrash Corbin, but the Cubbies' starter could help this cause, too.
Jameson Taillon is actually having a decent season, supported by a 3.93 SIERA. However, he could be due for regression in several key areas. His 9.1% swinging-strike rate is much lower than you'd expect for someone punching out over a quarter of the hitters they face. Also, despite a 47.6% flyball rate, he hasn't allowed a homer this year. That's playing with fire.
Look for these offenses to get back on track in D.C.
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Under 7.5 (-104)
The pitcher's duel of the afternoon might be in Chicago, though.
The Twins will wrap up their series against the ChiSox with Pablo Lopez on the hill, and the blockbuster offseason acquisition has lived up to his billing. Lopez holds a sparkling 3.18 SIERA with a 31.1% strikeout rate entering a plus matchup today with the Sox, who tout just an 85 wRC+ against right-handers.
Chicago will counter with Lucas Giolito, and the former top prospect might be starting to regain some of his long-lost 2021 form. Giolito has a solid 3.99 SIERA, and despite a lower strikeout rate (23.1%) than his other top years, he's actually corrected one of his major flaws -- a 35.9% hard-hit rate allowed is really solid work thus far.
Minnesota is a much better offense against righties (107 wRC+), but they also strike out over a quarter of the time against them. I expect both of these hurlers to have a quality day at the office.
Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
Marlins ML (-108)
Entering a battle of southpaws, these are two of the top-10 offenses against lefties in terms of both wRC+ and OPS. One of these lefties is significantly better, though.
That's Miami's Jesus Luzardo, who continues to be a great acquisition from the Starling Marte deal for the Fish. Luzardo's 3.48 ERA is well-supported by a 3.87 SIERA, and this is his second consecutive campaign with a swinging-strike rate north of 13.5%. With Lopez in Minnesota, Luzardo has taken the Marlins' second spot in the rotation behind Sandy Alcantara.
Atlanta will counter with Dylan Dodd, which is a harrowing prospect for them. Dodd hasn't been as bad as his 7.71 ERA indicates, but there are still worrisome bits in his profile -- such as a paltry 14.3% strikeout rate and a massive 54.3% hard-hit rate allowed. He's coughed up 1.93 HR/9 so far.
The Braves are the better team in a vacuum, which might be why they're getting 60% of bets in this pick 'em. However, 67% of the money is behind Miami, so sharps like the Marlins -- and so do I.