Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher or team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Tampa Bay Rays at Cincinnati Reds
Reds ML (+110)
I guess I'm on an island with just 24% of bets and 17% of the money on this side, but I'm unsure how the Rays are favored today.
Tampa rookie Taj Bradley had a nicer debut than his 5.40 ERA would indicate. He had a 2.21 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and struck out 40.0% of the batters he faced. The problem is that the one-game sample didn't lead to excellent results, and his 4.46 xFIP in AAA last year isn't overly encouraging. Bradley ceded a 50.4% hard-hit rate, too.
We've got far more of a sample on Cincinnati's Nick Lodolo, who has blossomed into a full-blown ace for the Red Legs. Lodolo's 3.29 SIERA from last year has been even lower (2.80) at the start of 2023. The biggest chasm from a profile like Bradley's has been his ability to limit hard contact (28.6% hard-hit rate allowed).
As a result, Lodolo has spun a 2.12 ERA despite two home starts in Cincinnati's hitter-friendly park. The Rays' lineup has crushed lefties to start the year, but Lodolo is one of the best in baseball and deserves to be favored over the Triple-A call-up here.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies
Over 13.0 (-110)
We'll just keep going to this well until the public adjusts.
The Rockies' weakened rotation should make Coors Field overs more prevalent than last, and Jose Urena gets another turn today. Urena has been dreadful to open 2023 with a 6.42 SIERA, a paltry 12.4% strikeout rate, and a 47.5% hard-hit rate allowed. It's not exactly a surprise coming off four straight years with a SIERA above 4.80; Colorado's ownership just doesn't care about winning.
However, Pittsburgh will do its best to match that apathy today. Vince Velasquez will get another turn for the Buccos despite a tumultuous start to his year, including a 5.90 SIERA, 16.4% swinging-strike rate, and a frightening 11.5% walk rate for a date at this park.
We saw last night, with a better pitching matchup, that even these weaker offenses can exploit a struggling hurler at this ballpark. It's one of several reasons we see sharps lining up to expect runs today; just 46% of tickets are on this over, but 81% of the money lies on that side.
Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres
Under 7.5 (-120)
The opposite of whatever should happen in Denver. Atlanta's Spencer Strider and San Diego's Blake Snell should duel in America's Finest City.
Strider was tabbed by many to be the Bravos' bonafide ace by the end of the year, and "Quadzilla" has lived up to that billing thus far. In three starts, Strider's SIERA (2.98) is even lower than his 3.38 ERA, and he's carrying a hefty 40.9% strikeout rate into this one.
The Padres have a below-average OPS (.717) and strikeout rate (25.0%) versus righties, so Strider isn't the matchup they wanted after getting shut out last night.
At the very least, Snell could help them hang tight again. As someone who has had a SIERA below 4.05 for six straight seasons, his 5.03 SIERA thus far might be a product of a small sample against the Mets, Rockies, and these Braves, who chased him for four earned runs in less than four innings in Atlanta. His swinging-strike rate (13.5%) still shows he's got some of his best stuff.
Strider could do the bulk of the heavy lifting, but these bullpens are both below the league's average xFIP, too. I'd bet on another low-scoring night in San Diego.