Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins
Nationals ML (+140)
This line feels nearly too good to be true. The Nationals should have an edge in both domains.
Of course, that likely means Josiah Gray -- their one quality starter -- is on the bump, and he is. Gray's 3.64 expected ERA (xERA) provides some validity to a 2.96 ERA, and he's corrected some of his 2022 issues with the long ball, ceding just 0.99 HR/9 to this point.
Miami has a pathetic 83 wRC+ against righties this year with a .135 isolated power (ISO) -- both of which are seventh-worst in baseball. Surprisingly, Washington (118 wRC+ versus lefties) will have an advantage as they draw southpaw Jesus Luzardo.
Luzardo has pulled back a bit from his career-best campaign last year. He had a 3.28 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) in 2022, but this year, he owns a 4.16 SIERA. His 10.8% barrel rate allowed is quite high, as well.
These two clubs both have bottom-five bullpens (by xFIP), so there's volatility here -- but not enough to pass on the Nats as the side with value.
Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox
White Sox ML (+110)
I don't have the slightest clue why more than 80% of the tickets and 90% of the handle are behind the Guardians today.
Outside of fortunate results, Shane Bieber hasn't been as dominant as his 2.61 ERA would indicate. His SIERA and xERA are both north of 4.50, and he's managed just an 18.8% strikeout rate to this point.
Normally, I'd understand picking on the White Sox offense with a righty; they've got just a .671 OPS in the split. The problem is that Cleveland (.645 OPS) has been even worse, and they've got a tough assignment versus Chicago's Lance Lynn, too.
Lynn's 7.51 ERA is frightening, but he's actually been better than Bieber once you look under the hood. His 3.88 SIERA is lower with a significantly higher strikeout rate (26.8%). Lynn has been hurt significantly by an elevated .364 BABIP, and he's ceded an unusually high HR/9 (2.23) for someone with a normal fly-ball rate allowed (39.1%).
These are the baseball betting spots I dream about. Surface-level ERAs and team optics are moving betting traffic in this game, but the better side might be the home team.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Oakland Athletics
Athletics ML (+134)
When the 9-34 Oakland Athletics are this short of a 'dog, I always pull out my magnifying glass.
They've got a real shot to win today in a matchup with Arizona's Tommy Henry. Henry's 4.43 ERA is mostly fool's gold, with a 6.24 SIERA and a measly 9.9% strikeout rate behind it. Quietly, Oakland is one of the most lethal matchups for a lefty in MLB, holding a 112 wRC+ and .749 OPS in the split. Those are both top-12 marks.
Set to face a lefty themselves, the Diamondbacks have definitely lagged behind Oakland in the split. Their .732 OPS and 98 wRC+ are both bottom-15 marks, and Kyle Muller has some encouraging bits in his profile -- at least compared to Henry. His 5.59 SIERA is actually lower than Henry's, and he's only allowing a 31.6% flyball rate, so the 1.42 HR/9 rate is a bit unlucky.
With the A's the better offense in this battle of underwhelming southpaws, I will take the value behind this number and hope that Oakland's league-worst bullpen (5.91 xFIP) can hang on for dear life.