Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers
Under 8.0 (-112)
By wRC+, these are two of the eight worst offenses in baseball against southpaws, and solid ones will take the hill today for both clubs.
The Dodgers will send Clayton Kershaw to the bump, and he's adding another tremendous chapter to his career in 2023. Kershaw's 3.29 expected ERA (xERA) is its usual stellar mark, and he's generated a swing-and-miss on 15.1% of his pitches. Milwaukee's 30.7% strikeout rate against lefties is the highest in baseball; they'll struggle to make contact in this one.
Milwaukee's Wade Miley is a bit more volatile, but we largely know what we're getting with the veteran. He's "due for regression" to a 4.89 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), but that's just because the veteran sinkerballer lets 80.7% of at-bats end with the ball in play. He's ceded a 30.4% hard-hit rate allowed and just 0.54 HR/9. He knows what he's doing.
Notably, Max Muncy is a hefty bat out of Los Angeles' lineup today, which should only help these offenses stay quiet.
Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
Over 9.5 (-102)
These two elite teams will send their worst pitching situation to the mound simultaneously, so a shootout could be on the horizon.
Dean Kremer is absolutely bringing up the rear in Baltimore's rotation. He's amassed a 7.26 xERA with an elevated 44.3% hard-hit rate allowed, and that's not likely to get better when facing Tampa Bay. The Rays lead MLB in OPS (.847) and wRC+ (139) against right-handed pitching.
Tampa will turn to a bullpen game, headed by the largely reliable Jalen Beeks. After him, the adventure begins. Yonny Chirinos (5.30 SIERA) is expected to chew up a bulk of the innings today, but he'll also give way to a Tampa Bay bullpen that is the team's lone weak point. Their 4.68 xFIP from relievers is the fourth-highest in baseball.
Of course, the Orioles are a quality offense against righties (101 wRC+) or lefties (126), so they'll be able to make inroads, as well.
San Diego Padres at Minnesota Twins
Twins ML (-130)
Twins -1.5 (+152)
I'm expecting the Twins to be a good bit ahead of the Padres today and even this series.
Minnesota is sending Pablo Lopez to the bump, and that's been a good thing this year. Lopez's 3.77 ERA is a bit unlucky when examining his peripherals, including a 3.16 SIERA and 3.22 xERA. Lopez has bonafide swing-and-miss stuff with a 14.6% swinging-strike rate, so his punchout rate north of 30% is likely here to stay.
I'm a bit less confident in San Diego's Seth Lugo. Lugo's 3.21 ERA is actually better, but he's had the opposite fortune, per a 4.40 xERA. Lugo's 41.2% hard-hit rate allowed is concerning, and his swinging-strike rate (7.6%) is much lower, leaving more to chance.
In a matchup of righties, the Twinkies (.693 OPS) have handled the split just slightly better than the Friars (.686). Plus, their bullpen (4.07 xFIP) has been slightly better than San Diego's (4.37), too.
I'll likely ladder this outcome with a one-unit bet on the moneyline, and then, I'll add a sprinkle of the Twins' runline (+152) in the event they get it done comfortably.