This past week produced solid results for my overall MLB Bullpen System and most of the other drill-down angles I’ve been tracking for savvy baseball bettors. Last Monday, I cautioned readers on overpricing of teams. Those heavy favorites struggled again with an ROI of -41% for the last seven days. Underdog teams with better bullpens netted profits as did those on various streaks. We also saw several teams make quantum leaps with great performances from their bullpens since last Monday, including the Cubs, who jumped up 10 points on my power rating scale, as their relief staff proved to be a big factor in winning five of six games. Let’s review the various results in another MLB Bullpen System Update.
Before getting into all of this week’s key numbers, a reminder that these numbers can of course be found on the Makinen Daily Power Ratings page on VSiN.com for easy usage. Keep this article handy when analyzing each of the daily matchups.
Better bullpen but overpriced angle
Highly-priced better bullpen teams were 12-9 this past seven days and lost -8.6 units. Now, in games this season through Sunday 6/18 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or more, that team is 126-64, but for –20.04 units. In my opinion, bullpens prove to be the difference in games that are priced more competitively. I don’t like backing heavy favorites with this high of prices on any single regular season baseball game. I prefer the other side.
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at these games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s been an even better opportunity to avoid games. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 23-35 for -55.42 units! This angle was 4-3 last week for -2.22 units, another promising set of results. This situation is rare but should be taken advantage of when it arises. The R.O.I. on this has been -95.6%! I challenge readers to find an angle this simple that produces such definitive results.
Worse bullpen teams struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser bullpen rating looking to extend winning streaks has been a strong strategy, although these teams did fare well last week to drop our overall numbers significantly. In fact, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 118-104 for -22.3 units, an R.O.I. of -10%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks now have a record of 35-50 for -17.01 units. The R.O.I. on that system is -20%, although there were 6.97 units won last week by these teams.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In the same study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, I found nothing significant in the two-game data. However, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I found that these teams have gone 116-68 for +31.08 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 16.9%. These better bullpen teams enjoyed a huge week of 15-3 for +13.2 units!
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
After a solid 10-7 week, updating the results on two-game losing streaks, the teams with better bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 112-74 for +25.43 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 55-20 for +34.58 units. The R.O.I. on this system is 46.1%!
Better bullpen underdog teams are solid wagers
An easily more frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings plays as an underdog. Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 169-167 for +47.18 units, an R.O.I. of 14%! This is a very simple angle that can be easily determined each day by utilizing the Makinen Daily Ratings page on VSiN.com.
Most of the systems continue to increase their profitability on a week-to-week basis. Hopefully, you have been employing these successfully over the last few months. I will continue to stress that I believe the reason for the success of these strategies is that they are foundational systems based upon a key team strength and other situational factors.
Of course, these drill-down systems arose because I wanted VSiN readers to feel more comfortable in betting systems that don’t require wagering on every game. That said, for the entire season I have again been tracking the original general bullpen system, which took into account the overall record for backing the better bullpen rated team in every game on the schedule. This is how the analysis started, and I have expanded since. I’ve been using this methodology for the last five or six years to strong profits. It was again slightly positive last week, going 52-38 for +2.08 units. These were the results by day:
Monday 6/12: 4-3, -3.37 units
Tuesday 6/13: 8.6, +0.4 units
Wednesday 6/14: 9-7, +2.51 units
Thursday 6/15: 5-5, -1.81 units
Friday 6/16: 9-6, +0.67 units
Saturday 6/17: 7-6, +0.2 units
Sunday 6/18: 10-5, +3.48 units
Adding these numbers to the overall season records of this methodology, we are now at 588-458 for +2.3 units. The full-season profit & R.O.I. numbers are positive again and have been every year for me since 2017. However, although the profitability is very small when you still consider the advantage of backing better bullpen teams over blindly playing any other angle, at an 8% juice level, the difference is over +75 units. With none of the other drill-down systems considered, backing better bullpen teams will keep you in the baseball betting game for the long haul.
Here are the updated key bullpen stats accumulated so far this season, as well as my current Bullpen Power Ratings as we head into this week’s games. Note, ratings were as of games through Sunday, June 18th and I do update them daily.
Key Bullpen Stats (through games of June 18th)
Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
- New York Yankees: 2.96
- Cleveland: 3.02
- San Diego: 3.21
- Houston: 3.32
- Minnesota: 3.45
Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
- Oakland: 5.58
- Los Angeles Dodgers: 5.04
- Kansas City: 4.81
- Washington: 4.79
- Chicago White Sox: 4.68
Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
- San Diego: 1.16
- Cleveland: 1.19
- New York Yankees: 1.19
- Atlanta: 1.2
- San Francisco: 1.21
Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
- Oakland: 1.55
- Colorado: 1.46
- Kansas City: 1.45
- Washington: 1.44
- Pittsburgh: 1.40
Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
- Houston: 10.46
- Baltimore: 10.35
- Toronto: 10.32
- Seattle: 10.22
- St Louis: 10.17
Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
- Washington: 7.57
- Tampa Bay: 7.69
- Oakland: 7.90
- Boston: 7.93
- Detroit: 8.49
Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
- Tampa Bay: 0.86
- Boston: 0.98
- Detroit: 0.99
- New York Mets: 0.99
- Texas: 1.01
Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
- Pittsburgh: 1.89
- Los Angeles Dodgers: 1.70
- Baltimore: 1.70
- Los Angeles Angels: 1.63
- Toronto: 1.60
I use a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number reflects the stats listed above with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since last week Monday the 12th of June:
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
- Chicago Cubs: +10 points
- Tampa Bay: +8
- Detroit: +6
- San Diego, San Francisco: +5
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
- Pittsburgh: -9 points
- Houston, New York Yankees, St. Lous, Philadelphia, Baltimore: -4
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks
Rank - Team - Bullpen PR
- New York Yankees: 18
- San Francisco: 18
- Tampa Bay: 16
- Minnesota: 16
- Atlanta: 15
- Cleveland: 15
- Houston: 14
- San Diego: 14
- Baltimore: 10
- Los Angeles Angels: 10
- Toronto: 9
- Seattle: 9
- Cincinnati: 9
- Miami: 7
- Milwaukee: 6
- Arizona: 5
- Boston: 4
- Detroit: 4
- New York Mets: 3
- St Louis: 3
- Chicago White Sox: 1
- Texas: -3
- Los Angeles Dodgers: -4
- Chicago Cubs: -4
- Philadelphia: -6
- Pittsburgh: -8
- Kansas City: -8
- Washington: -12
- Colorado: -13
- Oakland: -23
These are sorted by bullpen ranking and overall team power rating. Remember to continue being selective using the drill-down systems I have shared.