MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
Following their sweep of the Yankees at home on the weekend of June 16th, I contemplated how much impact this type of weekend might have on the Red Sox. Heading into that series, they were floundering, searching for a spark and/or consistency. I figured a huge weekend sweep of their most fierce rival might propel them back into the race in the AL East. Well, the great mojo lasted for a few days as Boston won back-to-back games against Minnesota afterward, only to go 1-6 in the next seven games. In any case, it did get me thinking. Are there rivalry series’ that each team plays that might build momentum, or on the opposite side, cause a letdown afterwards? I set out to find the answer to this question by studying my MLB database over the last 5+ seasons. The following is what I found.
As with any study of this type, you will find answers on both sides of the argument and varying degrees of success by teams. There is no set handicapping standard for dealing with post-rivalry series games. However, I uncovered many team-by-team momentum-building or letdown angles that we could employ over the rest of the season should you agree with the logic.
What I have done below is put together a list of momentum-building or letdown post-rivalry series scenarios for many of the teams across the MLB landscape. These are 31 of the most definitive angles I found when studying the data. These records all indicate the success or lack thereof that teams have had in the game following a 3+ game series against a divisional rival. The data dates back to the start of the 2018 season or the last 5-1/2 seasons.
To be perfectly honest, I was a little disappointed in not finding anything conclusive for some of the game’s biggest rivalries, such as Dodgers-Giants, Cubs-Cardinals, or Red Sox-Yankees, but hopefully, you still find the information useful. You’ll see also that for each scenario, I’ve listed the next opportunity to take advantage of the findings, with games starting as early as Friday, 6/30.
Before I get into the team-specific data, for the record, from a systematic standpoint, here are the best and worst records of all teams coming out of series’ against these specific opponents:
Best
- First game after facing Baltimore: 127-92 (+36.72 units, ROI 16.8%)
- First game after facing Milwaukee: 124-100 (+28.14 units, ROI 12.6%)
Worst
- First game after facing Atlanta: 88-131 (-50.9 units, ROI -23.2%)
- First game after facing Miami: 99-119 (-34.26 units, ROI -15.7%)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown angles
ATLANTA
Letdown after series vs. New York Mets: 10-16 (38.5%) -9.72 units, ROI: -37.4%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 8/14 vs. New York Yankees
Momentum after series vs. Philadelphia: 16-11 (59.3%) 5.6 units, ROI: 20.7%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 9/15 at Miami
BALTIMORE
Letdown after series vs. Boston: 8-18 (30.8%) -9.25 units, ROI: -35.6%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 9/11 vs. St Louis
Letdown after series vs. Toronto: 6-18 (25.0%) -10.6 units, ROI: -44.2%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 8/4 vs. New York Mets
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Letdown after series vs. Detroit: 8-17 (32.0%) -9.2 units, ROI: -36.8%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 9/4 at Kansas City
CHICAGO CUBS
Momentum after series vs. Pittsburgh: 18-7 (72.0%) 10.96 units, ROI: 43.8%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 8/28 vs. Milwaukee
CINCINNATI
Momentum after series vs. Pittsburgh: 13-9 (59.1%) 5.02 units, ROI: 22.8%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 8/15 vs. Cleveland
COLORADO
Momentum after series vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 14-11 (56.0%) 3.62 units, ROI: 14.5%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 6/30 vs. Detroit
Momentum after series vs. San Diego: 16-10 (61.5%) 10.75 units, ROI: 41.3%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 8/4 at St. Louis
HOUSTON
Momentum after series vs. Los Angeles Angels: 20-7 (74.1%) 9.79 units, ROI: 36.3%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 7/18 at Colorado
Momentum after series vs. Seattle: 19-8 (70.4%) 6.35 units, ROI: 23.5%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 7/14 at Los Angeles Angels
MIAMI
Letdown after series vs. New York Mets: 8-16 (33.3%) -7.23 units, ROI: -30.1%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 9/22 vs. Milwaukee
Letdown after series vs. Philadelphia: 6-18 (25.0%) -11.3 units, ROI: -47.1%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 7/14 at Baltimore
Momentum after series vs. Washington: 16-11 (59.3%) 11 units, ROI: 40.7%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 8/29 vs. Tampa Bay
MILWAUKEE
Momentum after series vs. Chicago Cubs: 16-10 (61.5%) 4.45 units, ROI: 17.1%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 7/7 vs. Cincinnati
Momentum after series vs. Cincinnati: 17-9 (65.4%) 5.55 units, ROI: 21.3%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 7/14 at Cincinnati
NEW YORK METS
Letdown after series vs. Philadelphia: 11-16 (40.7%) -8.55 units, ROI: -31.7%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 9/26 vs. Miami
Letdown after series vs. Washington: 8-17 (32.0%) -17.45 units, ROI: -69.8%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 8/1 at Kansas City
NEW YORK YANKEES
Letdown after series vs. Boston: 13-13 (50.0%) -10.29 units, ROI: -39.6%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 8/22 vs. Washington
Momentum after series vs. Tampa Bay: 22-5 (81.5%) 15.65 units, ROI: 58.0%
Next betting opportunity: Thursday 8/3 vs. Houston
OAKLAND
Letdown after series vs. Los Angeles Angels: 9-17 (34.6%) -13.3 units, ROI: -51.2%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 9/4 vs. Toronto
Letdown after series vs. Texas: 9-17 (34.6%) -10.56 units, ROI: -40.6%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 8/11 at Washington
PHILADELPHIA
Letdown after series vs. New York Mets: 11-16 (40.7%) -9.03 units, ROI: -33.4%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 9/26 vs. Pittsburgh
PITTSBURGH
Letdown after series vs. Chicago Cubs: 8-17 (32.0%) -6.58 units, ROI: -26.3%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 8/28 at Kansas City
SAN DIEGO
Letdown after series vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 14-15 (48.3%) -6.65 units, ROI: -22.9%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 8/8 at Seattle
Momentum after series vs. Colorado: 17-9 (65.4%) 9.75 units, ROI: 37.5%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 8/4 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Momentum after series vs. San Francisco: 16-9 (64.0%) 8.7 units, ROI: 34.8%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 9/4 vs. Philadelphia
TAMPA BAY
Momentum after series vs. Baltimore: 18-7 (72.0%) 12.6 units, ROI: 50.4%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 7/25 vs. Miami
TEXAS
Letdown after series vs. Los Angeles: 6-20 (23.1%) -13.23 units, ROI: -50.9%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 8/18 vs. Milwaukee
WASHINGTON
Letdown after series vs. Atlanta: 8-18 (30.8%) -11.1 units, ROI: -42.7%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 9/26 at Baltimore
Letdown after series vs. Philadelphia: 7-17 (29.2%) -12.4 units, ROI: -51.7%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 7/3 vs. Cincinnati