Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)
Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers
Under 228.5 (-110)
Indiana Pacers Moneyline (+126)
The Miami Heat have -- as usual -- a lengthy injury list, but a lot of the tags say "probable." Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro hold those probable tags.
In games with both of them, the Heat have a 5-7 record and a net rating (excluding low-leverage possessions) of -0.6. This comes with slightly worse-than-average offense and slightly better-than-average defense.
Miami also has not been a particularly good road team. They are 3-9 outside Miami but are the fifth-most unlucky team in terms of road record. With that being said, they're still a subpar road team, and it's important to remember that.
The Pacers' bill of health is pretty solid, and they'll have Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner, and Buddy Hield. In games with those three, the Pacers are 11-9 despite a net rating of -2.0.
Accounting for home-court advantage and rest (both teams last played on Saturday), my model leans toward the Pacers 113.8 to 111.0. numberFire's model also likes the Pacers' moneyline as a one-star play.
The preferred play by my model and numberFire's is the under. numberFire's algorithm rates the under as a four-star option and considers this game to be 70.6% likely to stay under 228.5.
In a game without Butler in early November, the Pacers won at home 101-99.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks -8.5 (-106)
Over 228.5 (-110)
The Mavericks have been a very location-sensitive team this year. At home, they're 10-4. On the road, they're 3-9. They're at home, and Luka Doncic is available for this game after he missed a game over the weekend with a quad injury.
With Doncic and Christian Wood active, the Mavericks are 12-9 with a net rating of +4.1.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are 5-10 on the road this year with an opponent-adjusted point differential of -3.8. (Dallas, at home, is a +6.7.)
In games with both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey, Oklahoma City is 7-14 with a net rating of -4.5.
My model likes this game to score 231.9 points, as this is a spot between an elite offense (Dallas holds a relevant offensive rating of 118.2) against a bad defense (Oklahoma City's relevant defensive rating is 116.7) while the other side is an average offense (112.2) against an average defense (114.1).
My model also thinks the Mavericks should be double-digit favorites.
Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Clippers
Under 224.5 (-110)
The Los Angeles Clippers' injury report is absent of two key names: Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.
We last saw this team on Saturday, and in that game, Leonard played 30.4 minutes, and George played 40.9 minutes. In games with both of them active, the Clippers are 5-2 with a net rating of +2.9.
They have that due to stifling defense (a 107.5 defensive rating, around 95% of the NBA average) and a subpar offense (110.3, 97%).
For the Boston Celtics, they hold an elite offensive rating (119.8) on relevant possessions, but they, too, have a better-than-average defense (110.5, 97%).
Combined, that leads to an expected point output of just 218.8 points in my model. numberFire's model projects a total of only 210.6. Just 2 of 13 Clippers games in LA have gone over this season.