Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where can we identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers
Over 213.5 (-110)
Brooklyn Nets +10.0 (-110) - Lean
A 20-point win to open the series has the Philadelphia 76ers favored by 10.0 points in Game 2 of this Eastern Conference playoff series.
Despite losing 121-101, the Nets actually had a better effective field goal percentage (eFG%) than the 76ers did: 65.0% to 59.0%. But the offensive rating itself favored the 76ers: 137.0 to 114.3.
A big reason for it was turnovers (19.9% turnover rate for the Nets). Another reason was offensive rebounding for the 76ers: 31.8%. Now, the Nets were 29th in rebounding rate (47.2%) on the season, but the Sixers were only 19th (49.6%).
The preferred play here is the over (213.5). My model likes this game to see a total of 221.0, and numberFire's algorithm has this game going over at a 58.4% likelihood.
My model also views the spread as 9.7 points, so that's tight. That being said, the algorithm at numberFire sees the Nets as 59.8% likely to cover.
Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings
Sacramento Kings +1.5 (-112)
Another Game 1 winner dominated the offensive glass (17 to 9) but find themselves as home underdogs for Game 2. The Sacramento Kings are 1.5-point underdogs to the Golden State Warriors, who lost 126-123 in Game 1 despite a better eFG% (56.7% to 51.0%).
Since the All-Star break, the Kings rank second in the NBA in eFG% (57.8%); the Warriors are 7th (57.1%), so this should continue be a close series based on shooting efficiency.
numberFire's model likes the Kings to go up 2-0 with a 60.1% probability. Therefore, it's unsurprising that they're a pick to cover by the algo: Kings +1.5 is a three-star suggestion.
My model also has the Kings favored -- albeit not as heavily (53.3%).
The 1.5 points in a close matchup are certainly appealing. Otherwise, the total here looks quite efficient.