Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where can we identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Miami Heat at New York Knicks
New York Knicks (-290)
There are three key injuries to watch in this game.
The Miami Heat are potentially losing Jimmy Butler for this game due to an ankle sprain sustained late in Game 1.
The Knicks are listing both Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle as questionable due to ankle issues of their own, and New York was without Randle for Game 1.
This makes it tough to navigate in terms of early-day decision-making, but this is a much bigger deal for Jimmy to miss for the Heat.
The Heat's net rating swings from +3.0 to -4.3 without Butler on the floor (once accounting for other variables and injuries).
The Knicks with and without Randle are +5.0 and +4.3, respectively. Without both Brunson and Randle their net rating is +1.9, which still gives them an edge if Butler is out. And I don’t think we can expect a 100% effective Butler anyway.
The betting trends are skewing pretty heavily toward the Knicks (74% of the spread bets are on the Heat -- but only 56% of the money is on Miami in that market).
All of this suggests to me that the Knicks will not have to deal with Butler tonight, and a bounce-back win is the right angle for the game.
numberFire's model likes the Knicks moneyline and spread (-6.5) as one-star plays, as well.
Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Lakers +4.5 (-108)
Under 228.0 (-112)
The Golden State Warriors looked like the dynastic version of themselves in Game 7 against the Sacramento Kings, who crowned the Warriors by shooting 43.8% (effective field goal percentage) and allowing a 34.0% offensive rebounding rate.
Stephen Curry was a +25 over his 38 minutes and dropped a 50-point, 8-rebound, 6-assist triple-double.
That's what the Lakers have to contend with.
The recent data, though, says that they can.
The Lakers have, frankly, been great with LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and D'Angelo Russell all active. They are 12-3 outright (with a +10.9 point differential) and hold a 10-5 against-the-spread record.
They do have to deal with the Warriors at home, where they are 35-9 across the regular season and playoffs, however.
Both faced strong first-round opponents, and the Lakers played better than the Warriors did as a bit of a proxy there, and my model likes the new-look Lakers a lot and thinks taking the points (+4.5) is the right play here.
We've also seen that number fall from +5.0 to +4.5 (after opening at +4.5).
My model also points to an under (228.0) due to two good defenses and not quite enough pace to overcome the defensive ability for both sides.