Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where can we identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Memphis Grizzlies at Miami Heat
Over 220.5 (-110)
The Memphis Grizzlies' locker room and rotation remain a big reason for adjusting full-season and even recent data, but there are still reasons to like an over for this matchup with the Miami Heat.
Memphis' offensive rating with Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. active but with Ja Morant, Steven Adams, and Brandon Clarke out is still a healthy 115.1, and they operate at a fast pace in such games.
For the Heat, their relevant offensive rating for this matchup is 114.4 with a worse-than-average defensive rating of 114.7.
Both teams are coming off of a day of rest, too.
numberFire's model likes the over as a one-star play. My model projects a point total of 225.1.
Sacramento Kings at Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls Moneyline (-108)
Over 236.5 (-112)
A very different total is posted for this game than the one we just covered -- but a similar case can be made for the over.
Both the Bulls (115.0) and the Sacramento Kings (121.6) have above-average offensive ratings, and the Kings themselves have been very over-friendly of late.
In their past 10 non-overtime games, the over is 6-3-1 and has gone over by an average of 8.1 points overall. They've surpassed their implied team total in seven of those games and have allowed their opponents to do so in six games.
numberFire's model likes the over as a one-star play, and my model projects a total of 242.2.
But the actual preference is for the Bulls to win outright. They are favored by 3.9 in my model and by 2.1 for numberFire.
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers
Los Angeles Clippers Moneyline (-146)
The Los Angeles Clippers are about to extend a three-game homestand -- all of which were wins -- and host their fourth opponent tonight, the Golden State Warriors.
The Warriors have won two straight themselves -- but both were on their home court. They have won eight straight at home but have lost eight straight road games.
It's no surprise that the Warriors' road issues are something to mention this far into the season, and while I'm not reducing this recommendation to the fact that the Warriors are bad on the road, it doesn't hurt.
Based solely on the rotation-adjusted data, my model actually sees the Clippers as 7.3-point favorites.
numberFire's model thinks the Clippers are 60.5% likely to get the win.