Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where can we identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Los Angeles Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies
Los Angeles Lakers Moneyline (-112)
If we assume that Ja Morant is out, then this game is extremely tight to project. It's also tight if he plays because the Memphis Grizzlies are pretty good with and without him, a trend that has been noteworthy for a while now.
But the expected spread for my model does flip whether he plays or not. With him off the floor, my model projects a 2.3-point spread in favor of the Los Angeles Lakers. With Morant active, then the Grizzlies are favored by 0.7.
In both scenarios, the over/under is projecting at 227.0 without Morant and 226.0 with him, making action on a 227.0 number tough to recommend until we know the status of Morant more fully.
Again, indications are that it's more likely than not that Morant sits, so with that in mind and with how close it is either way, my preferred action here is the Lakers' moneyline (-112).
In 10 games with LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and D'Angelo Russell, the Lakers are 9-1 outright with a point differential of +11.9, and they're' 7-3 against the spread in that split, as well.
Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 (-110)
Under 219.5 (-112)
Injuries are afoot in this game, as well. Most notably, Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful for the Milwaukee Bucks.
In games with Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton active but Antetokounmpo off the floor, the Bucks hold a relevant net rating of +10.1 over 545 minutes (1,141 possessions -- enough to feel pretty stable).
As for the Miami Heat, they're without Tyler Herro for multiple weeks, and they list Kyle Lowry as questionable. With Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo active but Herro on the sideline, Miami's net rating on medium-or-higher-leverage possessions is -3.9 with an average offensive rating of 112.5.
Given those splits, my model likes the Bucks to win by double-digits and also anticipates a lack of scoring (a projected total of 212.7).
numberFire's algorithm also likes the under as a two-star suggestion.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets
Under 223.5 (-110)
What's that? You want more injury news? Well, you're in luck!
The Denver Nuggets list Nikola Jokic as questionable, though he did practice on Tuesday. The whole game centers on his ability to play, yet it seems likely that he's good to go, given the heavy spread in Denver's favor.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are not without injury notes themselves. Rudy Gobert is questionable. The Timberwolves have actually had better recent splits with Gobert sidelined (while accounting for the availability of Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, and Mike Conley), but the constant here is an interest in the under whether Gobert plays or not.
While the Nuggets' offense is elite with Jokic active, the Timberwolves are returning subpar levels of offensive output with their main rotation active. They compensate there with better-than-average defense, however.
My model projects a total of 218.7 with an expected drop in pace, as these teams averaged 93.2 possessions in the opener.