Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
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Please note that betting lines and our daily projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 Made Threes (-140)
I wrote this up for Game 1, and it missed as Kentavious Caldwell-Pope went 1 for 3 from deep. I'm going back to the well for Game 2.
There were some positives we can pull from what we saw from KCP in the series opener, especially his minutes. Caldwell-Pope played 36 minutes on Thursday, and that was his third straight game seeing at least 34 minutes. He's now played at least 34 minutes in five of the Denver Nuggets' past six games.
I think KCP taking just three triples was somewhat flukey. He's jacked up at least seven three-pointers in three of the previous four games, and the Miami Heat have permitted gobs of three-point tries all season long, surrendering the second-highest three-point attempt rate in the regular season (43.0%) and the third-highest in the postseason (44.4%).
Pope is an elite shooter -- 42.3% from three in the regular season -- who should see big-time minutes against a defense that allows a bunch of three-point attempts. I like his chances of making at least two three-pointers on Sunday, and our model does, too, projecting him to go 2.2 of 5.3 from three.
Bam Adebayo Under 18.5 Points (-113)
Bam Adebayo was excellent in Game 1, netting 26 points to go with 13 boards and 5 assists. He was Miami's best player.
I don't think he has another big scoring night in Game 2.
Adebayo finished Game 1 with a 29.2% usage rate. Not only was that the best on Miami, it was actually a game-high mark as both Nikola Jokic (23.0% usage) and Jimmy Butler (17.2%) weren't nearly as involved as they usually are.
Bam had averaged a 23.2% usage rate in the playoffs prior to Game 1. The 25 shots he took on Thursday were by far the most he's taken in a game in the postseason. He was averaging 10.6 shots per night over his past five games and hadn't attempted more than 20 shots in a game since January 24th -- a span of 49 games -- and Butler didn't play in that January 24th affair.
With Bam due for some negative regression in scoring and usage and Butler very likely to take more than 14 shots in Game 2, the under on Adebayo's points looks appealing. Plus, Tyler Herro could be back in some capacity for Game 2.
We project Bam for 16.9 points on Sunday.