Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.
Table Terms
FanDuel Salary (Sal): A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Average FDP (FDP): A player's average FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value (Val): Projected average FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x average value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Percentile (25 Pct): The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Percentile (75 Pct): The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP% (x+ %): The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio (Boom/Bust): The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2.25x versus less than 1.25x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
Quarterback
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25Pct | 75Pct | 25+% | Boom/Bust |
| PatrickMahomes | $9,000 | 22.5 | 2.53 | 17.3 | 27.7 | 39.4% | 1.05 |
| JustinFields | $8,400 | 21.6 | 2.57 | 16.0 | 28.5 | 37.4% | 1.26 |
| JaredGoff | $7,400 | 19.5 | 2.68 | 14.4 | 25.0 | 25.0% | 1.44 |
| AaronRodgers | $7,100 | 18.5 | 2.65 | 13.8 | 23.8 | 19.3% | 1.36 |
| TrevorLawrence | $7,800 | 17.6 | 2.25 | 12.9 | 22.6 | 16.4% | 0.55 |
| DanielJones | $7,300 | 17.6 | 2.36 | 12.2 | 22.9 | 16.7% | 0.80 |
| BrockPurdy | $7,000 | 17.4 | 2.51 | 13.0 | 22.8 | 16.7% | 1.11 |
| KirkCousins | $7,600 | 17.0 | 2.25 | 12.1 | 21.6 | 13.2% | 0.49 |
| TomBrady | $7,200 | 16.7 | 2.30 | 11.5 | 21.3 | 12.2% | 0.60 |
| GenoSmith | $7,100 | 16.1 | 2.28 | 11.5 | 21.1 | 11.0% | 0.62 |
| DeshaunWatson | $6,700 | 16.0 | 2.39 | 11.3 | 21.2 | 10.0% | 0.82 |
| MikeWhite | $7,000 | 15.4 | 2.17 | 10.5 | 20.1 | 8.5% | 0.47 |
| TylerHuntley | $6,600 | 15.2 | 2.27 | 10.1 | 19.9 | 8.8% | 0.64 |
| TeddyBridgewater | $6,100 | 15.0 | 2.53 | 10.3 | 20.3 | 9.5% | 0.99 |
| MacJones | $6,400 | 14.6 | 2.31 | 10.1 | 19.3 | 8.4% | 0.69 |
| ColtMcCoy | $6,400 | 14.5 | 2.28 | 9.7 | 19.5 | 7.3% | 0.64 |
| CarsonWentz | $6,500 | 14.3 | 2.16 | 8.9 | 19.7 | 6.8% | 0.59 |
| GardnerMinshew | $7,500 | 13.8 | 1.88 | 8.9 | 19.1 | 6.9% | 0.23 |
| RussellWilson | $6,900 | 13.7 | 1.95 | 8.9 | 18.4 | 5.3% | 0.31 |
| DesmondRidder | $6,300 | 13.7 | 2.16 | 8.8 | 18.5 | 5.3% | 0.50 |
| DavisMills | $6,300 | 13.3 | 2.18 | 9.3 | 18.5 | 7.3% | 0.54 |
| KennyPickett | $6,600 | 13.1 | 1.96 | 8.1 | 17.1 | 4.1% | 0.27 |
| SamDarnold | $6,800 | 12.8 | 1.87 | 8.5 | 17.2 | 4.2% | 0.22 |
| NickFoles | $6,500 | 12.2 | 1.88 | 7.5 | 16.5 | 2.4% | 0.24 |
| JarrettStidham | $6,100 | 12.1 | 1.96 | 7.6 | 16.6 | 2.2% | 0.35 |
| AndyDalton | $6,400 | 11.9 | 1.82 | 7.3 | 16.4 | 1.8% | 0.23 |
| JalenHurts | $8,800 | 8.5 | 0.97 | 3.5 | 13.4 | 0.8% | 0.00 |
Running Back
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25Pct | 75Pct | 20+% | Boom/Bust |
| ChristianMcCaffrey | $9,500 | 20.6 | 2.19 | 14.9 | 27.1 | 52.8% | 3.15 |
| SaquonBarkley | $9,200 | 17.9 | 1.94 | 12.0 | 23.9 | 39.5% | 1.55 |
| JamesConner | $8,000 | 17.0 | 2.13 | 11.4 | 22.2 | 34.9% | 2.23 |
| JoshJacobs | $8,500 | 15.3 | 1.79 | 10.7 | 20.3 | 27.0% | 1.21 |
| RhamondreStevenson | $7,000 | 15.2 | 2.23 | 10.2 | 20.2 | 26.2% | 2.64 |
| TravisEtienne | $7,700 | 14.6 | 1.93 | 9.6 | 20.5 | 27.7% | 1.58 |
| MilesSanders | $6,800 | 14.4 | 2.07 | 8.9 | 19.2 | 22.4% | 1.88 |
| AaronJones | $7,600 | 14.3 | 1.84 | 9.0 | 19.1 | 21.3% | 1.21 |
| AlvinKamara | $7,300 | 14.3 | 1.96 | 9.3 | 18.7 | 20.2% | 1.60 |
| DalvinCook | $8,300 | 14.0 | 1.72 | 9.7 | 18.7 | 19.4% | 0.89 |
| NickChubb | $7,800 | 13.8 | 1.77 | 9.0 | 18.3 | 18.3% | 1.01 |
| KennethWalkerIII | $6,700 | 12.9 | 1.89 | 7.7 | 17.5 | 15.7% | 1.27 |
| BrianRobinson | $6,900 | 12.7 | 1.81 | 7.2 | 18.2 | 17.7% | 1.14 |
| TylerAllgeier | $6,700 | 12.6 | 1.92 | 8.0 | 17.6 | 15.1% | 1.40 |
| LeonardFournette | $7,000 | 12.4 | 1.79 | 7.9 | 16.8 | 11.6% | 1.05 |
| ZonovanKnight | $6,400 | 12.3 | 1.91 | 6.9 | 17.2 | 14.6% | 1.31 |
| DavidMontgomery | $7,500 | 11.7 | 1.62 | 7.5 | 16.7 | 12.2% | 0.70 |
| NajeeHarris | $6,500 | 11.7 | 1.74 | 7.0 | 16.3 | 10.7% | 1.03 |
| D'AndreSwift | $7,100 | 11.6 | 1.67 | 7.0 | 17.0 | 12.8% | 0.87 |
| JamaalWilliams | $6,600 | 11.0 | 1.68 | 6.2 | 15.7 | 9.7% | 0.85 |
| IsiahPacheco | $6,300 | 10.8 | 1.75 | 6.3 | 15.7 | 10.8% | 0.99 |
| RachaadWhite | $6,800 | 10.7 | 1.47 | 6.0 | 14.7 | 8.3% | 0.54 |
| ZackMoss | $6,900 | 10.6 | 1.56 | 6.0 | 15.4 | 8.9% | 0.65 |
| JerickMcKinnon | $6,800 | 10.4 | 1.56 | 5.9 | 15.4 | 8.2% | 0.67 |
| A.J.Dillon | $7,200 | 10.2 | 1.41 | 5.9 | 14.6 | 8.4% | 0.41 |
| CordarrellePatterson | $5,900 | 10.2 | 1.76 | 6.1 | 14.7 | 6.5% | 1.00 |
| J.K.Dobbins | $6,500 | 9.6 | 1.53 | 5.1 | 14.1 | 5.4% | 0.56 |
| D'OntaForeman | $6,500 | 9.3 | 1.46 | 4.8 | 13.6 | 5.1% | 0.47 |
| RaheemMostert | $6,600 | 9.3 | 1.47 | 5.6 | 13.7 | 4.5% | 0.47 |
| RoyceFreeman | $5,900 | 9.1 | 1.50 | 4.2 | 13.1 | 4.4% | 0.60 |
| LataviusMurray | $6,700 | 8.8 | 1.31 | 4.7 | 12.6 | 4.2% | 0.29 |
| ChubaHubbard | $6,400 | 8.6 | 1.33 | 4.6 | 12.2 | 3.0% | 0.32 |
| JeffWilson | $6,000 | 8.2 | 1.38 | 4.5 | 12.4 | 1.9% | 0.48 |
| MichaelCarter | $6,100 | 7.3 | 1.16 | 3.3 | 11.4 | 1.4% | 0.28 |
| KennethGainwell | $5,400 | 6.6 | 1.18 | 2.8 | 10.3 | 1.3% | 0.30 |
| KhalilHerbert | $5,500 | 6.5 | 1.14 | 2.5 | 10.7 | 0.7% | 0.29 |
| DamienHarris | $6,000 | 6.4 | 1.04 | 2.2 | 10.1 | 1.5% | 0.18 |
| AntonioGibson | $5,800 | 6.1 | 1.06 | 2.5 | 10.1 | 0.6% | 0.22 |
| ChaseEdmonds | $4,500 | 5.9 | 1.31 | 2.5 | 9.5 | 0.6% | 0.43 |
| GusEdwards | $6,100 | 5.9 | 0.96 | 2.0 | 10.5 | 1.6% | 0.17 |
| DareOgunbowale | $5,300 | 5.7 | 1.07 | 1.6 | 9.8 | 1.0% | 0.26 |
| JaylenWarren | $5,700 | 5.4 | 0.96 | 1.8 | 8.8 | 0.4% | 0.12 |
| KareemHunt | $5,500 | 5.3 | 1.06 | 2.1 | 9.7 | 0.2% | 0.22 |
| DeonJackson | $6,200 | 5.1 | 0.82 | 1.5 | 8.2 | 0.1% | 0.05 |
| JustinJackson | $5,400 | 4.0 | 0.77 | 0.1 | 8.2 | 0.2% | 0.12 |
Wide Receiver
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25Pct | 75Pct | 17.5+% | Boom/Bust |
| JustinJefferson | $9,200 | 16.6 | 1.76 | 11.0 | 21.5 | 43.3% | 1.03 |
| Amon-RaSt.Brown | $8,200 | 16.4 | 1.99 | 11.8 | 20.6 | 42.8% | 2.08 |
| TyreekHill | $9,000 | 15.1 | 1.66 | 9.7 | 20.5 | 36.6% | 0.85 |
| DavanteAdams | $8,500 | 12.9 | 1.52 | 7.8 | 17.9 | 27.1% | 0.48 |
| A.J.Brown | $8,400 | 12.7 | 1.57 | 7.9 | 18.3 | 28.1% | 0.61 |
| DeAndreHopkins | $8,100 | 12.3 | 1.53 | 7.1 | 17.4 | 24.5% | 0.54 |
| D.K.Metcalf | $7,600 | 12.2 | 1.62 | 7.6 | 17.0 | 22.8% | 0.71 |
| ChristianKirk | $6,900 | 11.9 | 1.72 | 7.2 | 16.5 | 21.5% | 0.97 |
| GarrettWilson | $7,300 | 11.7 | 1.60 | 6.8 | 16.8 | 21.2% | 0.74 |
| ChrisGodwin | $7,600 | 11.4 | 1.49 | 7.3 | 15.7 | 16.9% | 0.47 |
| BrandonAiyuk | $6,600 | 10.9 | 1.65 | 6.6 | 15.4 | 16.5% | 0.83 |
| JaylenWaddle | $7,700 | 10.8 | 1.45 | 6.6 | 15.4 | 14.2% | 0.36 |
| AmariCooper | $7,100 | 10.7 | 1.47 | 5.5 | 15.9 | 18.1% | 0.59 |
| D.J.Moore | $7,000 | 10.5 | 1.58 | 6.3 | 15.6 | 16.4% | 0.62 |
| DeVontaSmith | $7,800 | 10.5 | 1.35 | 5.6 | 15.0 | 15.2% | 0.33 |
| AllenLazard | $6,200 | 10.5 | 1.73 | 6.4 | 14.9 | 14.1% | 0.85 |
| MichaelPittmanJr. | $7,200 | 10.5 | 1.44 | 6.4 | 14.6 | 13.2% | 0.42 |
| JakobiMeyers | $6,700 | 10.2 | 1.56 | 6.0 | 14.6 | 11.2% | 0.56 |
| DrakeLondon | $6,700 | 10.2 | 1.55 | 6.5 | 14.5 | 12.0% | 0.61 |
| TerryMcLaurin | $7,400 | 10.0 | 1.37 | 4.7 | 15.0 | 14.6% | 0.40 |
| ZayJones | $6,300 | 9.9 | 1.53 | 4.9 | 14.0 | 11.9% | 0.60 |
| BrandinCooks | $6,400 | 9.8 | 1.56 | 5.3 | 14.3 | 11.6% | 0.61 |
| MikeEvans | $7,500 | 9.8 | 1.24 | 4.5 | 14.9 | 15.7% | 0.35 |
| JerryJeudy | $7,000 | 9.4 | 1.36 | 5.1 | 13.9 | 9.5% | 0.36 |
| DiontaeJohnson | $6,600 | 9.3 | 1.49 | 5.3 | 14.1 | 10.5% | 0.51 |
| JuJuSmith-Schuster | $6,800 | 9.3 | 1.37 | 5.5 | 13.2 | 7.5% | 0.35 |
| ChrisOlave | $6,800 | 9.1 | 1.36 | 4.5 | 13.7 | 11.0% | 0.42 |
| CourtlandSutton | $6,800 | 9.0 | 1.29 | 4.6 | 13.8 | 12.1% | 0.40 |
| TylerLockett | $6,000 | 8.8 | 1.47 | 4.3 | 13.3 | 8.3% | 0.59 |
| MarquiseBrown | $6,900 | 8.4 | 1.15 | 3.5 | 12.2 | 5.3% | 0.20 |
| AdamThielen | $6,300 | 8.3 | 1.36 | 4.7 | 11.9 | 6.7% | 0.35 |
| JahanDotson | $6,100 | 8.3 | 1.36 | 4.0 | 12.3 | 7.8% | 0.39 |
| ChrisMoore | $5,600 | 8.2 | 1.51 | 4.6 | 11.8 | 4.8% | 0.48 |
| ChristianWatson | $7,600 | 8.1 | 1.02 | 3.9 | 11.7 | 6.3% | 0.11 |
| DariusSlayton | $6,300 | 8.0 | 1.26 | 3.6 | 12.2 | 7.6% | 0.33 |
| DonovanPeoples-Jones | $6,500 | 8.0 | 1.27 | 3.6 | 12.3 | 8.1% | 0.31 |
| D.J.Chark | $6,000 | 7.9 | 1.33 | 3.6 | 12.3 | 6.3% | 0.41 |
| RomeoDoubs | $5,900 | 7.6 | 1.31 | 3.9 | 11.5 | 3.8% | 0.36 |
| CoreyDavis | $5,500 | 7.5 | 1.40 | 3.2 | 11.6 | 3.9% | 0.42 |
| IsaiahHodgins | $6,200 | 7.4 | 1.13 | 3.3 | 11.0 | 3.5% | 0.22 |
| CurtisSamuel | $5,900 | 7.4 | 1.28 | 4.8 | 10.5 | 0.8% | 0.19 |
| RichieJames | $5,700 | 7.4 | 1.24 | 3.7 | 10.6 | 2.6% | 0.25 |
| ElijahMoore | $5,300 | 7.1 | 1.33 | 3.1 | 11.3 | 4.8% | 0.47 |
| OlamideZaccheaus | $5,400 | 7.0 | 1.31 | 3.5 | 11.0 | 3.4% | 0.39 |
| GeorgePickens | $6,100 | 6.9 | 1.14 | 2.9 | 11.2 | 4.8% | 0.27 |
| JoshReynolds | $5,400 | 6.6 | 1.28 | 2.7 | 11.1 | 3.7% | 0.40 |
| KendrickBourne | $5,600 | 6.4 | 1.16 | 3.2 | 9.6 | 0.8% | 0.16 |
| DemarcusRobinson | $5,800 | 6.3 | 1.08 | 2.9 | 10.1 | 1.6% | 0.18 |
| JauanJennings | $5,500 | 6.3 | 1.11 | 2.8 | 9.6 | 1.2% | 0.21 |
| MarquezValdes-Scantling | $5,500 | 6.2 | 1.01 | 1.7 | 10.0 | 2.6% | 0.24 |
| ParrisCampbell | $5,800 | 5.9 | 1.07 | 3.0 | 9.5 | 0.7% | 0.13 |
| AlecPierce | $5,700 | 5.9 | 1.08 | 2.2 | 9.9 | 1.7% | 0.19 |
| ChaseClaypool | $5,700 | 5.9 | 1.02 | 2.6 | 9.1 | 0.7% | 0.14 |
| MarvinJones | $5,200 | 5.9 | 1.15 | 2.1 | 10.0 | 2.5% | 0.33 |
| RandallCobb | $5,400 | 5.7 | 1.00 | 2.2 | 8.8 | 0.6% | 0.14 |
| RussellGage | $5,900 | 5.7 | 0.96 | 2.4 | 8.9 | 0.9% | 0.10 |
| TerraceMarshallJr. | $5,600 | 5.6 | 1.02 | 2.1 | 9.3 | 0.5% | 0.15 |
| K.J.Osborn | $5,900 | 5.5 | 0.98 | 2.4 | 9.2 | 1.0% | 0.09 |
| GregDortch | $5,300 | 5.4 | 1.03 | 2.8 | 7.8 | 0.1% | 0.09 |
| HunterRenfrow | $5,400 | 5.2 | 0.91 | 2.1 | 8.2 | 0.0% | 0.10 |
| MecoleHardman | $5,500 | 5.0 | 0.90 | 1.9 | 8.0 | 0.3% | 0.08 |
Tight End
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25Pct | 75Pct | 15+% | Boom/Bust |
| TravisKelce | $8,300 | 15.0 | 1.80 | 9.9 | 20.1 | 49.6% | 1.19 |
| GeorgeKittle | $7,400 | 10.4 | 1.40 | 5.9 | 14.5 | 23.1% | 0.39 |
| MarkAndrews | $6,300 | 10.0 | 1.53 | 4.8 | 13.8 | 21.2% | 0.59 |
| T.J.Hockenson | $7,000 | 9.7 | 1.34 | 5.1 | 13.3 | 16.6% | 0.30 |
| ColeKmet | $5,300 | 8.9 | 1.65 | 4.3 | 13.0 | 15.8% | 0.80 |
| EvanEngram | $5,800 | 8.8 | 1.51 | 5.4 | 12.7 | 12.8% | 0.64 |
| DallasGoedert | $6,000 | 8.3 | 1.31 | 3.8 | 12.1 | 14.0% | 0.40 |
| PatFreiermuth | $5,700 | 7.3 | 1.26 | 4.0 | 11.0 | 6.8% | 0.30 |
| DavidNjoku | $5,600 | 7.0 | 1.27 | 3.2 | 11.1 | 7.2% | 0.34 |
| TaysomHill | $6,800 | 6.3 | 0.93 | 3.0 | 9.6 | 3.6% | 0.05 |
| DarrenWaller | $5,500 | 6.2 | 1.10 | 2.2 | 10.1 | 7.4% | 0.28 |
| JuwanJohnson | $5,700 | 6.1 | 1.08 | 2.0 | 10.4 | 6.6% | 0.23 |
| TylerConklin | $4,900 | 6.0 | 1.19 | 2.4 | 9.3 | 3.1% | 0.28 |
| LoganThomas | $5,100 | 5.6 | 1.08 | 1.5 | 9.7 | 6.5% | 0.30 |
| JelaniWoods | $4,700 | 5.4 | 1.19 | 1.8 | 9.2 | 5.7% | 0.37 |
| NoahFant | $5,200 | 5.4 | 1.11 | 2.6 | 9.0 | 2.8% | 0.18 |
| JordanAkins | $4,900 | 5.1 | 1.03 | 1.7 | 8.3 | 1.9% | 0.18 |
| HunterHenry | $4,800 | 4.9 | 1.00 | 0.9 | 8.4 | 3.4% | 0.24 |
| DanielBellinger | $4,700 | 4.7 | 1.00 | 1.4 | 7.7 | 1.4% | 0.16 |
| TreyMcBride | $4,800 | 4.7 | 1.04 | 1.6 | 7.8 | 1.1% | 0.15 |
| RobertTonyan | $5,100 | 4.5 | 0.92 | 0.9 | 8.6 | 3.8% | 0.18 |
| CadeOtton | $5,000 | 4.4 | 0.89 | 1.1 | 7.7 | 2.1% | 0.14 |
| IsaiahLikely | $4,500 | 4.0 | 0.92 | 0.8 | 7.1 | 0.4% | 0.13 |
| GregDulcich | $5,400 | 3.1 | 0.58 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 0.9% | 0.04 |
| AnthonyFirkser | $4,400 | 3.0 | 0.76 | 0.5 | 6.0 | 0.3% | 0.09 |
| ColbyParkinson | $4,500 | 2.9 | 0.58 | 0.0 | 5.9 | 0.4% | 0.07 |
| IrvSmithJr. | $4,500 | 2.8 | 0.61 | 0.0 | 5.7 | 0.5% | 0.07 |
| IanThomas | $4,400 | 2.8 | 0.70 | 0.3 | 5.6 | 0.2% | 0.05 |
| MoAlie-Cox | $4,500 | 2.7 | 0.63 | 0.0 | 5.8 | 0.4% | 0.07 |