Our model is not finding much value for Monday's five-game slate, but it has spotted a potential upset in a matchup between two of the NHL's best clubs at present.
How should we bet on the Flames-Senators clash in Ottawa?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Calgary Flames at Ottawa Senators
Senators ML (+118) - 2 Stars
Both of these teams made splashy offseason acquisitions, and they've really started to gel and find their groove recently. They've gotten it done in different ways.
Since January 1st, the Flames have allowed the second-fewest expected goals (xGA) per 60 minutes in the NHL (2.70). It's easy to position Ottawa as the underdog given their mark in that stat (3.15), but the Sens make up for it offensively.
Ottawa is second from the top in expected goals scored (xGF) per 60 minutes (3.70) during this recent period. Calgary (3.43) is the squad that lags behind when attacking.
Overall, though, the differentials for both clubs are top-five marks since the calendar turned to 2023. The difference today might come from the crease, and surprisingly, despite Jacob Markstrom appearing as a Vezina Trophy finalist last year, that arrow isn't pointed in Calgary's direction this year. In terms of goals saved above expectation, Markstrom (-0.41) has lagged behind Ottawa's Anton Forsberg (2.94).
On equal rest and at home, the 'dog is the side our model is backing in this one. It views Ottawa as 51.6% likely to win this contest at odds that imply just a 45.9% chance.