Does the NHL care that it's Opening Day in baseball? Absolutely not! They've loaded Thursday up with 13 games, and we've got several lines showing a ton of value in numberFire's model.
Where should we wager tonight?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators
Senators ML (-160) - 3 Stars
This is a straightforward process for me -- and apparently for the model. No Carter Hart, no thanks to backing the Flyers.
Hart is out with a lower-body injury at the moment, and Philadelphia's struggled to cover or win games even with him in goal. Since March 1st, the Flyers have ceded the 14th-most expected goals allowed (xGA) per 60 minutes, and they're scoring the 11th-fewest expected goals (xGF) per 60 themselves.
It's likely Felix Sandstrom in goal tonight, and he's 83rd among 97 goalies with an appearance this year at -4.95 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) for the season. Even the struggling Mads Sogaard (-0.41 GSAx) on Ottawa's side represents an upgrade.
The Sens have posted the seventh-most xGF per 60 minutes this month (3.33), so things could get ugly quickly if Sandstrom's struggles continue.
Our model thinks they will. It pegs Ottawa as 69.4% likely to win tonight, which provides value juxtaposed with these 61.5% implied odds.
Nashville Predators at Pittsburgh Penguins
Predators +1.5 (-140) - 3 Stars
Under 6.5 (-118) - 3 Stars
Can Nashville's quest to conquer Eastern Conference titans and stay alive for the playoffs continue?
They defeated Boston 2-1 on Tuesday and cashed this exact set of bets. They can absolutely do it to Pittsburgh, who enters with a weaker profile and some general instability in goal. Tristan Jarry has posted -8.95 GSAx this month, which has prompted many fans to wish for Casey DeSmith (2.02 GSAx in March), but Jarry is tonight's projected starter early in the day.
The Pens have continued to win behind their league-best offense this month (3.90 xGF per 60), but there is no certainty that works tonight when running into the brick wall known as Juuse Saros. Saros is fourth in the NHL with 6.86 GSAx in March.
Nashville (2.56 xGF per 60 minutes this month) is never a threat to burst an under, so numberFire's model loves a tight, low-scoring game here. It sees the game with fewer than seven total goals 64.3% of the time, and it sees the Predators covering this spread 67.5% of the time.
Florida Panthers at Montreal Canadiens
Canadiens +1.5 (-126) - 4 Stars
Canadiens ML (+184) - 3 Stars
This line might actually show more value later today, and it's because the wheels have fallen off a bit for Sergei Bobrovsky.
Bobrovsky has posted -3.84 GSAx this month, and Florida knows it. That's why they started Alex Lyon (-0.43 GSAx in March) on the front end of the back-to-back against Toronto. Now, for the second leg against the lowly Canadiens, it'll be the struggling Bobrovsky, but the model currently is baking in Lyon.
numberFire also currently projects Sam Montembeault in line to start for Montreal, and he's been solid with 1.63 GSAx this month as an obvious advantage. The only issue is he's not confirmed despite resting Tuesday, and Jake Allen (-8.72 GSAx in March) would be the best path for the Canadiens' future. He'd tank this game.
Therefore, it might be worth waiting for goaltending news to fire, but you'll want to have those alerts quickly. If it's a Bobrovsky-Montembeault matchup, our model thinks the Canadiens win 49.5% of the time and cover 73.1% of the time.
On paper, this is the best value spot of the day.