Our model only has a decided lean in one of Wednesday's five games, but it's a whopper.
We've got a side and a total to back in New York. Here's why.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Boston Bruins at New York Islanders
Islanders +1.5 (-170) - 3 Stars
Islanders ML (+146) - 2 Stars
Under 5.5 (-108) - 2 Stars
Our model is fading the dominant, vaunted Bruins, which isn't a huge surprise from a value-based algorithm. The B's have to be the public's favorite team of 2022-23.
Their 64.3% goals-for rate (GF%) is nearly seven percentage points clear of the rest of the league. That's a sure sign of pending regression, or they'd be the most dominant team in the modern era. Sure enough, take a look at their expected GF% (56.0%), and it's second to another squad (Carolina). They've been incredibly good and fortunate.
The under here makes plenty of sense. The Bruins play defense-first, allowing the fewest goals per 60 minutes (2.08) in the league. The Islanders (2.66) aren't too far behind, but they're carried by arguably the best netminder in the league.
Ilya Sorokin leads the NHL in goals saved above expectation (30.96 GSAx). He's an under machine but especially opposing a keeper like Linus Ullmark, who is fifth in that category himself (19.78).
Our model expects a low-scoring Islanders win a majority of the time. It's picking New York to pull the upset 50.2% of the time as a modest 'dog. For those more risk-averse, it sees even more value in the one-goal spread, expecting the Isles to cover 74.0% of the time against these 63.0% implied odds.
Even at this tiny total, we're also projecting the under to hit 58.2% of the time versus the 52.3% implied odds.