We've had a fun, action-packed week getting to back some of the sport's best goaltenders, and that won't change on Wednesday despite just a two-game slate.
Our model's not into the lopsided Canucks-Rangers clash, but where can we find value when betting on the tilt between Minnesota and Dallas?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars
Stars ML (-140) - 2 Stars
Under 5.5 (-104) - 2 Stars
A competitive Central Division in the NHL has been a gigantic surprise. The defending champion Avalanche are buried in fourth, and the last-place Predators have a Vezina candidate.
Two others will jockey for positioning on Wednesday, but in their home arena, our model and I like the Stars to emerge with a win.
Since January 1st, Dallas has been one of the best teams in hockey. They're fifth in expected-goals-for percentage (53.7 xGF%), and that work is done before you get to their elite netminder, Jake Oettinger. Oettinger is fifth in the NHL in goals saved above expectation (22.29 GSAx).
The Wild have been solid but lag just a bit behind. They're 11th in xGF% (51.7%), but the good news -- for them -- is they'll leave struggling netminder Marc-Andre Fleury (-1.90 GSAx) on the bench in favor of Filip Gustavsson (8.80 GSAx) in this one.
The goaltending upgrade is why our model thinks the under wins out 56.3% of the time against these 51.0% implied odds. After all, these teams have posted just the 12th- and 19th-most expected goals per 60, respectively, since the calendar turned to 2023. They're both led by defense.
As for the outcome, our model thinks, rested and at home, the Stars win this one 63.3% of the time. That's a value wager despite the elevated 58.3% implied win odds here.