The Divisional Round gets going on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. EST with an AFC clash between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Kansas City Chiefs.
On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Chiefs are 8.5-point home favorites in a game with a 52.5-point total. That makes the implied score 30.5-22.0 in favor of KC.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to main slates. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and we have projections for the single-game slate if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both of those things before you make your lineups.
MVP Candidates
Patrick Mahomes ($17,500 on FanDuel) is the slate's top MVP play.
Mahomes projects for 25.4 FanDuel points, per our model. That's 7.0 more than anyone else. We all know what kind of ceiling he offers. The decision with him is whether or not you want to swallow chalk at MVP because he'll likely be enormously popular in the multiplier spot. He should be, though, and will likely lead this slate in scoring. He smashed Jacksonville for 331 passing yards and four scores in the regular season
If it's not Mahomes as the slate's top scorer, it'll almost surely be one of Travis Kelce ($13,500), Trevor Lawrence ($16,000) or Travis Etienne ($12,000) -- all of whom project for at least 15.1 FanDuel points. None of them will be anywhere near as popular of MVP picks as Mahomes, so there's a huge edge to be gained if you fade Mahomes at MVP and hit on the right pivot.
Lawrence and Etienne are intriguing. Unlike Kelce, their success isn't tied to Mahomes.
Oftentimes in the postseason, lead backs see elevated workloads. That happened last week with Etienne, who logged an 86% snap rate, his second-highest of the year. He handled 20 carries and one target, and given that the Jags were trailing nearly all game, the fact he got 20 carries is a very promising sign. Etienne has the pass-game chops to stay relevant even if Jacksonville gets into a big hole. We have him scoring 15.1 FanDuel points. He's easy to love at his modest salary.
Lawrence checks a few boxes. The passing volume should be there in what figures to be a negative game script, and Lawrence has some rushing juice, posting eight games of at least 15 rushing yards this season, including outings of 53 and 51 yards. KC's defense gave up the second-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks (20.2) this season. I think he's my favorite non-Mahomes MVP option, and our model has Lawrence totaling 18.4 FanDuel points.
Kelce could pop. Jacksonville allowed the eighth-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends (11.1). He made six catches for 81 yards and a score in the regular-season meeting, and Gerald Everett just nuked the Jaguars for 109 yards and a touchdown last week. We forecast Kelce to put up 16.3 FanDuel points, the slate's best non-quarterback projection.
Flex Breakdown
I don't think I can putChristian Kirk ($12,500) into the mix of MVP options, but I really like him on this slate.
Considering Jacksonville had to win in Week 18, the Jaguars have basically played two playoff games in a row. In those games, Kirk has seen a total of 22 targets and racked up a combined 177 yards, notching a score in each outing while playing 96% and 99% of the snaps. Yes, please. KC has given up the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to wideouts (29.6), so the matchup is there. In a game where the Jags might have to go to the air a bunch, Kirk is a safe bet for quality volume and good production. Our model pegs him to produce 12.3 FanDuel points.
Evan Engram ($10,500), Zay Jones ($11,000) and Marvin Jones ($7,000) are all plenty viable, as well. Zay is going to be out there a ton, as he's played 94% and 99% of the snaps over the last two weeks. Marvin is a downfield threat who would benefit from the Jags being forced into a pass-heavy mode. That happened last week, and it resulted in Marvin playing 85% of the snaps, his highest snap rate since Week 5. Engram has gone for at least 62 yards in four of his previous six games, with three outings of at least 93 yards.
On the Kansas City side, we know the Chiefs are going to score points, but it's hard to feel super confident about any of their pieces outside of Kelce.
The backfield has been a two-man show between Jerick McKinnon ($11,500) andIsiah Pacheco ($10,000), butClyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,000) may return for this game. CEH could be a bit-part player if he comes back, so his return may not impact things too much.
McKinnon is the pass-game back while Pacheco handles most of the ground game. Usually, the ground-game back is the one who scores more touchdowns, but that hasn't been the case here as McKinnon has found the end zone 10 times (nine receiving) this season. The Jags have let up the most targets to running backs, so this could be a smash spot for McKinnon. With that said, if Kansas City plays with a lead, that also sets up well for Pacheco. In short, there are paths to a big game for both. We see McKinnon scoring 12.1 FanDuel points and have Pacheco projected for 9.7.
JuJu Smith-Schuster ($10,000) runs as the Chiefs' top wideout, but at his salary, he probably won't be a priority for me. I'd rather roll the dice onKadarius Toney ($7,000) or Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($7,500). Both Toney and MVS come at a friendly salary, and they each offer solid upside. MVS hasn't done all that much in his first year in Kansas City, but he has the downfield chops to get into the optimal with one big play. Toney has electric upside if he can play more snaps (hasn't topped 44% in a game this year), something that may happen in the playoffs.
We project kickers Harrison Butker ($9,500) and Riley Patterson ($8,000) for 8.5 and 7.4 FanDuel points, respectively. Butker makes some sense with Kansas City implied for 30.5 points.
Between the defenses, the Kansas City D/ST ($9,000) is the more appealing pick. With the Jaguars likely to be in a negative game script, KC's defense should have chances to amass sacks and turnovers. Lawrence has put the ball on the ground in four of his last five games, and in the one game that was an exception in that span, he tossed four picks.