Basketball is the most consistent sport for daily fantasy purposes.
A top slugger in baseball will have his fair share of 0-for-4 days, and an elite fantasy football player is at risk of having games where his team's offense is shut down.
A high-salaried NBA stud is generally going to get his, though. With so many possessions in a game providing opportunities to produce, top fantasy basketball options will be posting high scores just about every night.
While this consistency puts us in an excellent position to identify top plays, it also means you can't afford to miss when you're paying up for someone. Even with strong value plays in your lineup, paying up and getting a dud will likely leave your lineup drawing pretty close to dead.
Which top players should be the focal points of your lineups today?
Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C, Wizards ($9,900)
Kristaps Porzingis is the straw that stirs the drink on this slate.
Porzingis is questionable tonight due to a non-COVID illness, but he's the clear top overall option on this two-gamer if he suits up.
It's not a stellar slate, so you can't just look at Porzingis' 46.4 FanDuel points per 36 minutes and call him over-salaried. There's a great chance no star gets to a 5.00 value score today, and Porzingis has as good of a matchup as any guy above $8,000 on the slate.
The Jazz have let up numerous ceiling games to centers this year, coughing up the second-most FanDuel points per game to the position. On top of that, Kelly Olynyk is out tonight with an ankle injury.
If Porzingis doesn't go, both Bradley Beal ($9,000) and Kyle Kuzma ($8,300) leap into stud consideration.
C.J. McCollum, PG/SG, Pelicans ($8,500)
Without a doubt, C.J. McCollum will be the most popular stud on the slate. Will he be the best? Let's investigate.
In most situations, usage trumps all. McCollum will definitely get a bump from Zion Williamson's absence on Thursday. Williamson is in COVID-19 protocols, and the Pelicans are also still without Brandon Ingram. With those two off the floor, McCollum has seen a team-best jump in usage rate (4.9 percentage points).
It's a rare case in NBA DFS, but that usage jump hasn't led to a production jump so far. McCollum actually sees a drop of 0.74 FanDuel points per 36 minutes this year without the two on the floor. New Orleans' offense tanks without the pair (-7.3 net rating), and C.J. will obviously face more defensive attention.
McCollum is a cash-game must, yet he isn't a sure thing in GPPs at what figures to be enormous popularity. He'll have free reign to post a mammoth score, though.
Lauri Markkanen, PF/SF, Jazz ($8,200)
Though he's not as greatly impacted by injuries as the other guys above him in salary, Lauri Markkanen has a case, too.
As mentioned, Olynyk is sitting, and apparently, that's best served the Finnish star in Utah. He's seen a team-best increase of 3.16 FanDuel points per 36 minutes with K.O. off the floor this season.
Markkanen has eclipsed 30 real-life points five times this year, which would be a mammoth result to fade on such a short slate. It'll help his chances to put the ball in the hoop that Washington is allowing the fourth-most points per game to small forwards (23.6).
The Zion and Keldon Johnson injuries open up plenty of value for stars, but if Porzingis plays and McCollum is indeed a bust at his salary, Markkanen's high-floor output could be enough. He's the fifth-best projected power forward today on a point-per-dollar basis, per numberFire's model.