Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)
Boston Celtics at Oklahoma City Thunder
Under 233.0 (-110)
The Boston Celtics hit the road for a second straight game after a 123-111 loss to the Denver Nuggets on Monday night. That was their sixth road loss, and they're currently 11-6 outside of Boston.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have played eight of their past nine games in Oklahoma City, the lone exception being a December 29th loss at the Charlotte Hornets. The Thunder are a respectable 10-9 at home despite a 15-21 overall record.
Key injury notes here are that Robert Williams is questionable for Boston and that Aleksej Pokusevski is out for Oklahoma City.
The lone recommendation on this game from numberFire's model is a two-star play on the under (233.0); numberFire's model thinks this game scores around 227.0 points.
My model has the expected total at 230.9, so it also leans on the under.
Washington Wizards at Milwaukee Bucks
Under 229.5 (-110)
With only three games, we should make sure we're not chasing too much. That's especially true when key injury news comes by way of a questionable tag on a star player.
That leads to a big impact on the Washington Wizards' splits, and so I like to find out where a bet might line up with and without said player active. That puts me on another under.
The Wizards, in games with Kristaps Porzingis but without Beal have an offensive rating of 113.0; with both, it's 114.1. They do have a substantially better defensive rating without Beal (109.4) than with him (116.7).
Once we factor in the Milwaukee Bucks' splits without Khris Middleton, my model has the expected point total at 226.8. numberFire's has it at 225.0.
Sacramento Kings at Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz Moneyline (-154)
Utah Jazz -3.0 (-110)
We know that Collin Sexton is out for the Jazz, but the Sacramento Kings could be quite shorthanded depending on how the status of Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk shake out (both are questionable).
Once again, if we can feel solid with a play either in both situations or in the worst case, then we can take note.
Even with Monk and Huerter active, the data likes the Jazz. Sacramento, in games with De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis active, has a net rating of +1.3.
The Jazz, without Sexton and with a few key players (i.e. Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, and Lauri Markkanen) are at a +3.0. Accounting for home-court advantage and defensive splits, my model likes Utah by 5.6 points.
numberFire's model has the expected spread at 7.8 in Utah's favor, thus making their spread a three-star suggestion and their moneyline a five-star play.