Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates
Under 8.0 (+100)
This bet could effectively also back the Pirates' runline, but with that sitting at +114, why not throw in a tiny bit of insurance?
The starting point is Mitch Keller mowing through a Rockies lineup that's struggled versus righties all year. Colorado's 85 wRC+ against them is the seventh-worst mark in baseball, and Keller's breakout campaign shouldn't slow down here. He's posted a 3.22 ERA, which is well-supported by a 3.66 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and a tiny 25.5% hard-hit rate allowed.
However, I wouldn't discount Kyle Freeland putting a decent effort together for the Rox. Freeland's expected ERA (xERA) is 3.95, and he's allowed a lower 35.6% hard-hit rate. The Buccos' .786 OPS against lefties is the seventh-best mark in baseball, but projected as one of the worst offenses in the league, we could be just dealing with a small sample.
Both bullpens also have a sub-4.40 xFIP, and it's a pretty mild day for baseball in Pittsburgh. I don't forecast an offensive explosion here.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
Royals ML (+114)
The White Sox's spread and runline are getting pounded with money, but this line isn't budging. The reason why? This game is actually pretty close.
Dylan Cease was in Cy Young contention last year, so he's seen as quite a bit above the aging Zack Greinke, but the two have produced very similar efforts to start 2023. Cease's SIERA (4.36) is within spitting distance of Greinke's (4.58), and the Royals' Opening Day starter actually has a lower hard-hit rate allowed (41.2%) than Cease (52.0%).
Luckily for both, they'll draw two bottom-10 offenses tonight (in terms of OPS) against right-handed pitching.
This one could conceivably be decided in the bullpens, and surprisingly, Kansas City's 'pen (4.20 xFIP) has outperformed Chicago's (4.47) to this point.
I see this as a place to get sensibly contrarian from a majority of bettors tonight.
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Mariners -1.5 (+136)
Though skating by with decent results, Texas' Jon Gray just isn't pitching as well as he did in 2022.
Gray sports a concerning 6.18 xERA, and his strikeout rate has plummeted to just 14.5%. It was 25.7% a year ago, and he held a 3.59 xERA. I'm concerned that leads to a poor result tonight in Seattle. This is absolutely the Mariners' best split, too. They've got a 101 wRC+ against righties; it's just 78 versus southpaws.
The M's will counter with Logan Gilbert, who has the opposite issue of Gray. His 2.88 xERA is spectacular, and it's come with a tremendous 29.6% strikeout rate. He's just been extremely unlucky with a .298 BABIP allowed.
As we get to potentially protecting a multi-run lead, it's hard not to favor Seattle there, too. The Mariners have the second-best reliever xFIP in baseball (3.71), and the Rangers have the second-worst mark (4.94).
I don't mind laying the extra run for some juice when the pitching advantage should favor the home team throughout the game.