Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Andrew McCutchen To Hit a Home Run (+390)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 4.78 implied run total and could exceed that in a hurry tonight.
They will be taking on JP Sears, who is a pitcher we are going to target every single time he is on the slate. Specifically, we are going to look for right-handed hitters against Sears since that is where he is struggling this season.
So far this year, Sears has allowed a .492 SLG, 4.66 xFIP, 2.42 HR/9, 59.1% fly-ball rate, and 33.3% hard-contact rate to righties. All 13 of the home runs Sears has allowed this season have come via right-handed hitters. This continuously puts opposing righties in a spot for some power, and that will lead us to Andrew McCutchen tonight.
This season, McCutchen comes in with a 119 wRC+, .349 wOBA, .236 ISO, 19.0% strikeout rate, and 44.2% fly-ball rate. McCutchen isn't wasting chances at the plate, and he is elevating the ball a ton, which puts him in a great spot against a pitcher who clearly struggles with that.
As usual, I'm adding McCutchen To Record an RBI (+135).
Alek Manoah Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-102)
It's been a tough year for Alek Manoah.
To put things lightly, Manoah simply doesn't have it this season. He has a 17.6% strikeout rate, 15.0% walk rate, 5.99 xFIP, 8.9% barrel rate, 8.5% swinging-strike rate, and 24.5% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%). All of those are worse than last season and the worst of his career. Since the start of May, Manoah has been under this 4.5 mark in four of six starts.
Tonight, he takes on the always-dangerous Houston Astros, who come in with a 22.6% strikeout rate (11th-lowest in the league). They are not giving away free chances at the plate and now take on a pitcher who simply can't punch out hitters at the plate.
This is simply not the matchup for Manoah, who is having the worst year of his career.
Nick Castellanos To Record an RBI (+135)
With a 5.01 implied run total, we want to target the Philadelphia Phillies for some player props tonight.
Whenever a team has a high scoring expectation, it's generally a good spot to find some favorable props. That scoring expectation is due to them facing Joey Wentz, who comes in allowing a .399 wOBA, .564 SLG, 4.81 xFIP, 2.25 HR/9, 45.1% fly-ball rate, and 35.8% hard-contact rate to right-handed hitters.
While we're not looking for a drive into deep left field by Nick Castellanos, he certainly has that potential tonight. We just want a simple RBI, which he should be able to find since he comes in rocking a 132 wRC+, .369 wOBA, .182 ISO, 40.0% fly-ball rate, and 32.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers this season.
The Phillies are going to score some runs tonight, and Castellanos is likely to be involved with that.