We have a tidy six-game main slate on Monday night, and this one tends to lean toward the pitching side. As of this writing, just one offense has an implied team total exceeding five runs.
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Pitching Breakdown
Blake Snell ($10,900), Logan Webb ($10,100), andJoe Ryan ($9,900) figure to garner the most attention at pitcher tonight, and all three have their merits.
But in terms of upside, it's hard to bet against Snell these days. The often inconsistent lefty has now rattled off six straight quality starts, logging 43, 52, 58, 64, 61, and 46 FanDuel points over this stretch. During this time, he's posted an absurd 1.83 xFIP and 44.1% strikeout rate, which includes racking up double-digit strikeouts in each of his last four appearances.
With this being Snell, it's fair to assume that the rug will get pulled out from under us sooner rather than later, and this is a middle-of-the-road matchup versus the Angels. Still, the Halos have one of the night's worst implied team totals (3.52), and the lefty's tournament-winning upside is crystal clear.
While Ryan is less likely to rack up as many punchouts as Snell, he's easy to like as an alternative due to his soft matchup versus the Royals. Against right-handed pitching, Kansas City's active roster owns an 88 wRC+ and 24.1% strikeout rate, which are both bottom-four marks.
As for Ryan, he's been rock-solid this season, producing a 3.45 SIERA, 27.3% strikeout rate, and 3.9% walk rate over 16 starts. Although he's had mixed results lately, he did put together a complete-game shutout versus the Red Sox a couple of starts ago, so we shouldn't have any concerns about his ceiling.
Although Webb's 24.0% strikeout rate is a distant third amongst this trio, the Mariners are a fantastic matchup for Ks, coming in at a 25.1% clip against righties. Given that Seattle is a better overall offense compared to Kansas City, Webb still slots behind Ryan in the pecking order, but we can almost always count on Webb to pitch deep into games behind his elite 61.0% ground-ball rate. Webb has accrued quality starts in 12 of his 17 outings, and he's gone seven or more innings nine times.
If you want to take a more contrarian route and save a few bucks,Bryan Woo ($9,200) is worth considering. Over five starts, the rookie has impressed with a 2.99 SIERA, 33.3% strikeout rate, and 6.3% walk rate, and his 29.1% called-plus-swinging-strike rate is a promising sign that the Ks haven't entirely been a fluke.
However, the issue with Woo is that he's yet to go six full innings, and he hasn't exceeded 93 pitches in any start. This is also a difficult matchup against a Giants team that has the seventh-best wRC+ (113) among active rosters when facing right-handers. On the bright side, San Francisco also brings a 23.5% strikeout in this split, so the fantasy potential is there for Woo if he can make it through six-plus innings.
Hitting Breakdown
TheMinnesota Twins boast a slate-high 5.34 implied team total, and they should be able to take advantage of a plus matchup against left-hander Austin Cox.
While Cox has gotten pretty good results as a reliever this season, his first MLB start didn't exactly go swimmingly against Cleveland last week, allowing four earned runs over just 3 2/3 innings. Given that he doled out four walks (21.1% rate) to just two strikeouts (10.5% rate) and gave up a home run, it was hard to take many positives away from the outing. A 2.9% swinging-strike rate suggests he wasn't exactly fooling anyone with his stuff, either.
Overall, the southpaw has allowed a 5.08 xFIP to right-handed batters, and it just so happens that the Twins should have a lineup almost entirely made up of righties. If that wasn't enough, there isn't a single Minnesota batter with a salary over $3,100, and as long as rain doesn't interfere, this is shaping up to be some fantastic hitting weather.
Byron Buxton ($3,100) and Carlos Correa ($2,900) are the obvious starting points, and switch-hitter Willi Castro ($2,700) makes up for a lack of power with his speed (15 stolen bases). Guys like Donovan Solano ($2,500) and Kyle Farmer ($2,300) should bat high in the order, but keep in mind that they're also pinch-hit risks, and Cox went just 68 pitches in his last start. The same can be said for Jose Miranda ($2,000) and Michael Taylor ($2,300) lower in the lineup. While that adds some risk to this stack, the dirt-cheap salaries help make up for it.
TheAtlanta Braves have been firing on all cylinders lately, and it's hard to see Gavin Williams slowing them down. While there are high expectations for Williams over the long haul, he has an underwhelming 4.63 SIERA and 21.7% strikeout rate over two starts, and that's come against Oakland and Kansas City -- not exactly the cream of the crop.
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($4,800) is a no-brainer if you can make room, and Matt Olson ($4,400), Ozzie Albies ($3,600), Eddie Rosario ($3,100), and Michael Harris II ($3,000) will all have the platoon advantage at various salary tiers. But the reality is that you can stack just about anyone in this lineup from top to bottom.
TheSan Diego Padres will face Jaime Barria, a right-hander who's enjoyed good results but has lackluster underlying metrics. He's a low-strikeout pitcher against both sides of the plate, but it's actually the righties who may have the best advantage tonight, as Barria's posted a 4.69 xFIP, 18.8% strikeout rate, and 45.9% fly-ball rate in same-sided matchups.
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,000) and Manny Machado ($3,100) are the top righty bats, and guys like Xander Bogaerts ($3,000) and Gary Sanchez ($2,900) come in at value salaries. Juan Soto ($3,700) is crushing it against right-handed pitching like always, so he's a headliner, as well.
TheLos Angeles Dodgers have a difficult matchup against Mitch Keller, but on a smaller slate, they have to be considered pretty much by default. If Clayton Kershaw is placed on the injured list, thePittsburgh Pirates could face Michael Grove, which would put them on the radar, too.