We have a smaller five-game slate tonight where Coors Field is in action yet again. There are also some slight rain issues at Coors Field, as well as in Boston and Chicago. I'm not overly worried but still something to note.
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Pitching Breakdown
Max Scherzer ($9,700): Despite some ups and downs this season, Scherzer is still a borderline elite option and comes in with a favorable matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Scherzer's 26.2% strikeout rate this season is just a touch lower than the 30% rate we've seen from him in prior seasons. However, the Brewers strikeout out at the fourth-highest (25.1%) clip versus right-handed pitchers, so we absolutely want to be attacking this matchup. We saw it on display last night with Kodai Senga racking up eight strikeouts in just five innings pitched. That's the level we should see from Scherzer tonight.
The Brewers also come in with an 88 wRC+ (25th) and .149 ISO (22nd) in this split, making it a solid matchup to target.
Scherzer also comes in with a low 5.5% walk rate, 3.70 SIERA, 49.2% medium-contact rate, and 14.0% swinging-strike rate. He comes in projected for 36.2 FanDuel Points while the second-highest projected pitcher is at 27.7 FanDuel points. There's a clear gap between Scherzer and the next top option tonight, which should make him chalky in all formats.
Taijuan Walker ($9,500): Walker has been putting up some big fantasy performance as of late, and while I don't think it will be sustainable long-term, he has a good matchup to extend it for another start tonight. Long story short -- Walker is a fine pitcher but is overperforming right now.
He has a modest 20.7% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate, 4.58 SIERA, and allows 1.19 HR/9. Walker makes it work on the mound with a 47.7% ground-ball rate, 51.7% medium-contact rate, and .264 BABIP. He pitches to contact but generates a ton of ground balls and limits the hard contact. That allows him to limit the damage in most games and generate fantasy points via innings pitched while grabbing a quality start -- and potentially a win.
Walker is a better 'real life' pitcher than a fantasy pitcher with tons of strikeout upside. Even with all of that said, he's making it work and tonight's matchup against the Chicago Cubs can certainly allow this trend to continue.
The Cubbies come in with a 23.5% strikeout rate (8th), 97 wRC+ (18th), .145 ISO (24th), 45.8% ground-ball rate, and 52.9% medium-contact rate (10th) versus right-handed pitchers. It's a rather non-threatening lineup and lines up nicely against Walker's overall profile. He absolutely doesn't carry the same strikeout upside as Scherzer but is a viable option tonight given the matchup.
J.P. France ($8,700): We're dealing with a smaller five-game slate so the value options are limited tonight, but France could be a viable choice tonight. He doesn't jump off the page with an 18.8% strikeout rate and 8.0% walk rate, but that hasn't stopped him from being a decent fantasy option this season.
He's racked up 30 FanDuel points or more in six of his nine starts this season. Do I love seeing a 4.70 SIERA and 1.52 HR/9 from him? No, but a .260 BABIP, 55.2% medium-contact rate, and 44.8% ground-ball rate have me at least interested due to his lower salary and the fact we have high-salaried hitters at Coors Field to roster tonight.
Hitting Breakdown
Speaking of Coors Field, the Los Angeles Dodgers are rocking a massive 6.93 implied run total, which is noticeably higher than the Philadelphia Phillies with the second-highest implied run total of 5.08. Given the smaller slate, it'd be silly to not have some exposure to the Dodgers' lineup going up against Chase Anderson.
I say this with zero exaggeration -- roster whomever you can afford from the Dodgers' lineup. Freddie Freeman ($4,500), Mookie Betts ($4,400), and Will Smith ($4,100) are all elite options but they're also high-salaried as a result. It'd be great to roster them all, but it comes down to how much salary you have available based on your pitcher. James Outman ($2,900), David Peralta ($2,800), or Miguel Vargas ($2,600) would be the next set of players to target given their affordable salaries.
On the other side, plenty of Colorado Rockies' hitters are on the table tonight. That would start with Ryan McMahon ($3,500), C.J. Cron ($3,200), Nolan Jones ($3,800), and Ezequiel Tovar ($2,900). The first three all have ISOs sitting at .190 or higher in this split.
Outside of Coors Field, let's turn to the previously mentioned Phillies with a 5.08 implied run total. They are going up against Kyle Hendricks, who has a smaller sample size this season but has been overperforming some of his metrics. He has a 2.60 ERA compared to a 4.17 expected ERA (xERA). Hendricks also has a .220 BABIP, which is noticeably lower than the league average of .296. He's due for some regression, and the Phillies offense could get it started.
Of course, Kyle Schwarber ($3,600) starts things off with a team-high .209 ISO and 100 wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers and is always a threat for a home run. Brandon Marsh ($2,700) is next up with a .193 ISO and 139 wRC+, then Nick Castellanos ($3,400) with a .174 ISO and 119 wRC+.
Bryce Harper ($3,600) hasn't shown the same power this season as we are accustomed to seeing but is absolutely worth a spot in a stack. Don't forget about Trea Turner ($3,700), who can get a hit, steal a base, and score a run before you can blink.