The Midsummer Classic is an exciting time in the baseball season, and it starts with the Home Run Derby tonight. Eight players will compete in a head-to-head bracket-style tournament to crown the 2023 Home Run Derby Champion. There are several markets to consider for this All-Star event, so let's jump in.
Which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise.
Adolis Garcia To Win (+700)
When it comes to the Home Run Derby, we not only have to consider the player's individual talent but also the path it takes to win.
That combination of talent and a favorable path to win makes Adolis Garcia (+700) my pick tonight. When glancing at the odds to win, Pete Alonso (+320), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+350), and Julio Rodriguez (+500) are three of the four favorites to win, and they're all on the same side of the bracket. Garcia is on the opposite side of the bracket, which is a huge boost for his path to reaching the finals.
Of course, Garcia isn't just going to be relying on the bracket draw to get him the Home Run Derby crown. He's an elite power hitter and comes in with plenty of stats to show that he is capable of taking down anyone on his path to victory.
This season, Garcia comes in with a career-high .261 ISO, 16.4% barrel rate, 47.3% fly-ball rate, and 44.1% fly-ball rate. That puts him in the 90th percentile for average exit velocity, 96th percentile for max exit velocity, and 87th percentile for hard hit percentage, according to BaseballSavant. He's legitimately having his best season at the plate and can put that on full display tonight against the other elite hitters in the league.
Just for the sake of comparison, Pete Alonso (+320), the odds-on favorite to win the derby, comes in with those same percentile ranks of 45th, 89th, and 47th.
Frankly, Garcia's odds don't accurately reflect how good of a power hitter he is this season. He's the pick.
Distance of Longest Home Run Over 485.5 (-112)
Next, let's take a look at a secondary market for the longest home run over 485.5 feet.
We going to see a ton of home runs tonight, but how far are they going to go, and how do we bet on that? The market for over 485.5 feet is one of my favorite secondary markets since it only takes one swing. We're not looking for total home runs in the event or the total distance of all home runs combined. This is just one swing from one hitter.
If we look back at each Home Run Derby since 2017 (with no event in 2020), we can find data on the longest balls hit. Over these five derbies, the average longest home run is 496.4 feet. However, in 2021 the Home Run Derby took place at Coors Field, which skews the data a bit since it's -- by far -- the best hitter's park in the league at altitude.
So, if we look at the average longest home run of each event in the other four derbies, we get 490.5 feet, according to BaseballSavant. Yes, it's a small four-year sample size, but the hitters are routinely getting a few balls at the 490-foot mark.
If the yearly averages hold consistent, over 485.5 feet looks like the bet to make tonight.