The second and final day of the 2022 FIFA Men’s World Cup quarterfinals promises a perfect blend of intrigue and excitement, as four teams in imperious form vie for the two remaining semifinal places.
Three are European royalty, each with a trip or two to a major final in the last six years. The other carries the flag for Africa and the Arab world, and after dispatching a pair of world soccer powers already this month, they’ve shown they’re not to be taken lightly.
For the details on which of these has the best chance to move on, read on below. Also, be sure to check out FanDuel Sportsbook for the latest World Cup odds and more!
Morocco (+270 to advance) vs. Portugal (-350)
Al Thumama Stadium | Doha, Qatar | 10am ET
The question on everyone’s minds: Can the Atlas Lions do it again?
On Tuesday, unheralded Morocco defeated former world champions Spain on penalties to reach the World Cup quarterfinal stage for the first time in their history. And while the on-pitch performance over 120 minutes and PKs was outstanding, the incredible outpouring of joy and emotion from the team and the nation afterward was even better.
Ironically, to extend their stay in Qatar and become the first African side ever to reach the semis, Walid Regragui’s side have to slay another giant from just across the Strait of Gibraltar.
And while a matchup with Portugal wouldn’t have seemed too daunting for much of this tournament, all that changed five days ago, when the 2016 European champions routed Switzerland 6-1 in the Round of 16.
In that contest, the Portuguese looked nothing like the disjointed side that were unconvincing winners of Group H, but instead, they were unshackled, creative and free-flowing. It almost makes you wonder what was holding them back before…
In any case, Morocco may have deprived us of yet another Iberian Derby at a major tournament, but their foray to this stage is a welcome one, as is the sudden emergence of “Fun Portugal,” a version we didn’t know existed until Tuesday night.
Stylistically, these teams match up well. On one hand, Morocco are accustomed to ceding possession, forcing turnovers -- they lead the tournament in tackles per game (23) -- and then countering at pace. On the other, Portugal can play the possession game (58%, seventh-highest), but their preference for a swift, direct attack is more akin to that of France than the side-to-side, death-by-papercut approach of the Spanish.
More than anything, though, this appears to be a battle of immovable object versus suddenly irresistible force.
The Atlas Lions have allowed a single goal in the eight matches since Regragui took charge this August -- and that was a semi-meaningless own goal late in their 2-1 Matchday 3 win over Canada.
Portugal have averaged three goals per match in Qatar, and the six they notched in the last round were the most in a men’s World Cup knockout game since Germany famously put seven past Brazil in the 2014 semis.
If that Portugal show up again, it’s hard to see even the most stubborn of defenses holding them off, especially after this Morocco side left everything on the Education City Stadium pitch just days ago.
So could the underdog Atlas Lions do it again? It’s possible. But this may be one mountain too many for them to conquer.
Going Deeper: numberFire’s projections have Portugal’s win probability at 84%...the same number that was assigned to Spain earlier this week before the Spain-Morocco encounter. If those projections are correct this time, it would mark Portugal'sthird trip to the World Cup semis and their first since 2006.
Call To Action: These two played to a narrow 1-0 win for the Portuguese in the World Cup group stage four years ago in Russia, and signs point to the rematch plotting a similar path. Another Moroccan upset would be outstanding -- and their defense certainly gives them a chance -- but it feels as though their final was Tuesday night against the Spanish. Take a Ronaldo-less Portugal to win 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0 (+175), and applaud the Lions as they exit with heads held high.
England (+102 to advance) vs. France (-124)
Al Bayt Stadium | Al Khor, Qatar | 2pm ET
Oh, FIFA. You always save the best for last.
Of the four quarterfinal matches, none are as finely poised nor as tantalizing as England vs. France.
Beyond the obvious socio-political history between the two nations, this game as a football spectacle offers everything.
Sustained team success, both recent and historical? Check.
World-class players in their prime and up-and-coming talents making their initial mark on the world stage? Check.
Improving performances as the tournament has progressed? Double-check.
These two might play different styles of football -- France employ a more pressure-based game built on speed, while England are typically more measured and geared toward possession -- but the results from each this month have been equally impressive, with both sides winning their respective groups at a canter.
Each side features rare -- and in form -- offensive firepower, as England’s attacking options rival Brazil's for depth, while no team on Earth has a player like Kylian Mbappe, who leads the Golden Boot race with five goals in three starts to this point.
Both nations have scored multiple goals on three occasions in Qatar, with England’s 12 tallies leading the tournament. France are just behind with nine.
Defensively, the Three Lions have yet to allow a “meaningful” goal at this tournament. The only two they’ve let in came very late on Matchday 1 in a 6-2 win over Iran. They've kept three consecutive clean sheets since then.
Meanwhile, the French have been slightly more leaky at the back, but even though they’ve conceded in each of their World Cup matches so far, their average group stage expected goals (xG) allowed per match was 0.5, and they’ve given up fewer shots per match at this tournament (7.8) than the English (8.8) have.
So in an even contest between rivals, what might be the difference?
World Cup history is on England’s side -- they’ve won both previous meetings against the French in the tournament, albeit most recently in 1982 -- but France have been dominant head-to-head lately.
Since 2000, Les Bleus is 4-1-2 versus their rivals across the Channel, and even though they haven’t met in five years, their last match -- a 3-2 French win in a 2017 friendly at the Stade de France -- featured many of the chief protagonists we’ll see Saturday.
On that day, an 18-year-old Mbappe was impossible to slow down. It’s not a stretch to see a similar performance unfold this weekend, this time with the eyes of the world watching.
Going Deeper: Giving England a 45.9% win probability, numberFire’s projections lean toward Gareth Southgate's side to advance. If so, it’d be the second World Cup running and the fourth time overall that the Three Lions got to the semifinals. If France can prevail, they’d become the first defending champion to reach the semis since Brazil in 1998.
Call To Action: As Southgate and Didier Deschamps share the same pragmatic heart -- both would rather defend than attack any day of the week -- it’s natural to assume this will be a low-scoring affair, no matter how great the attacking talent is on each side.
With that said, the French have given up at least one goal in nine of their previous ten matches, and they now face the tournament’s top scorers. Plus, while England have tightened up considerably at the back during this World Cup, they shipped eight in three UEFA Nations League matches before heading to Qatar.
So, while it’s anyone’s guess who advances between these two, it’s a safe assumption that goals will be scored, likely at both ends. Whether you like England or France, grab one to win and both sides to find the back of the net -- +490 England or +410 France -- in the Result and Both Score section, and enjoy what should be one of the tournament’s most engaging contests.