Basketball is the most consistent sport for daily fantasy purposes.
A top slugger in baseball will have his fair share of 0-for-4 days, and an elite fantasy football player is at risk of having games where his team's offense is shut down.
A high-salaried NBA stud is generally going to get his, though. With so many possessions in a game providing opportunities to produce, top fantasy basketball options will be posting high scores just about every night.
While this consistency puts us in an excellent position to identify top plays, it also means you can't afford to miss when you're paying up for someone. Even with strong value plays in your lineup, paying up and getting a dud will likely leave your lineup drawing pretty close to dead.
Which top players should be the focal points of your lineups today?
Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF/SF, Bucks ($11,600)
For whatever reason, Giannis Antetokounmpo -- for fantasy purposes -- might be better without his long-time wingman.
Khris Middleton made his debut this month, and in the limited time with him on the floor, Antetokounmpo has posted 1.54 FanDuel points per minute. That's not bad, but it's also significantly behind his rate with Khris off the floor (1.66).
There are blowouts and some bad luck mixed in enough during that sample to believe the trend won't hold, but Middleton's absence on Monday does eliminate the concerns for Giannis entering this sublime matchup.
The Bucks are 1.5-point road favorites in New Orleans, and the game has a predictably high 227.5-point total for two of the better offenses in the league. Plus, the two clubs play at the 11th and 13th-fastest paces in the league.
Projected with a modest value score by our model, Giannis is the top high-end star of the day.
Domantas Sabonis, PF/C, Kings ($9,200)
After Nikola Jokic had 20 rebounds at halftime yesterday -- how can I not look toward Sacramento's center today?
Domantas Sabonis is heating up as is. He's eclipsed 55 FanDuel points in back-to-back games, and that's largely been due to him adding 20-point scoring efforts to what has been strong work on the glass all season (12.64 rebounds per 36 minutes).
Now, he draws the single-best matchup in the sport. Jokic is great, but a bulk of his production last night stemmed from facing a Charlotte Hornets squad that's comfortably allowing the most FanDuel points per game to opposing centers (60.5).
They're just awful against pivots, giving up the fourth-most rebounds per night to them and ninth-most paint points per game overall. It's about as good as a single matchup gets in NBA DFS.
There's a 240.5-point total in this game between two teams that are top 10 in pace and bottom 11 in defensive rating. Feel free to tack on LaMelo Ball and De'Aaron Fox in stacks of this one.
Donovan Mitchell, SG/PG, Cavaliers ($9,000)
Why not wrap up with a bit of a revenge narrative?
Though the game is in Cleveland, Donovan Mitchell will face his former team, the Utah Jazz, for the first time. He'll travel to Utah in January, and we'll probably run with him in daily fantasy in that one, too.
It just so happens the new-look Jazz are an excellent matchup for what Mitchell does well. A vast majority of Mitchell's fantasy production (68.4%) comes from scoring the ball. He's not contributing a ton in other categories.
That's ideal considering Utah -- a mid-pack matchup in terms of overall fantasy points per game allowed to point guards -- cedes the third-most real-life points per game to opposing point guards. They've been especially weak against floor generals who can score like Donnie can.
In general, the Cavs are a good bet for fantasy production in this one. Their league-worst pace (97.7) is offset quite a bit by the Jazz's 10th-fastest pace (102.7).
The stars might align perfectly for a fun storyline to materialize tonight in "The Land."