Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Tyler Herro Under 6.5 Rebounds (-111)
The Miami Heat are facing the Houston Rockets tonight, but Houston ranks fifth-best in rebounds per game allowed to opponents.
As for Tyler Herro himself, he is averaging 6.3 rebounds per game, so while the base expectation is close, the matchup isn't necessarily one in which we should bump up the projected rebound rate.
Herro is projected by numberFire for only 5.5 boards tonight.
Based on the underlying data from DARKO, Herro should be averaging 0.169 rebounds per minute but is actually averaging 0.182. Therefore, he's overperforming in the rebounding column, and he's in a pretty negative situation for getting boards.
At a projection of 5.5 rebounds, we should assume under odds of -215 at a prop of 6.5.
Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 16.5 Points (+100)
An even-money opportunity exists here with the over for Jaren Jackson Jr.'s points output against the Milwaukee Bucks.
Milwaukee ranks first in the NBA in defensive rating, yes, but in games against top-10 defenses this season, Jackson Jr. has averaged 17.5 points (0.677 points per minute). He's done that over 25.8 minutes per game.
Tonight, he's projected for more minutes than that (29.8) and 17.6 points.
At a projection of 17.6 points, we should assume fair odds on the over at 16.5 points to be -122.
C.J. McCollum Over 18.5 Points (-122)
C.J. McCollum is projected for 19.5 points in his matchup against the Utah Jazz on the road.
With Brandon Ingram off the floor this season, McCollum has averaged 0.500 points per minute, meaning he'd need 38.0 minutes to get over here. He has a nice 26.0% usage rate in that split.
And, for as good as the Jazz have been (relative to pre-season expectations), they have a bottom-10 defense.
Also, the underlying data from DARKO suggests that McCollum should be averaging 0.529 points per minute, which would mean he would get to 19 points in 35.9 minutes before an efficiency boost based on the easy matchup.
The opportunity and efficiency uptick here is pointing to the over.