FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Thursday 12/15/22

Since it's much simpler to predict than baseball or football, daily fantasy basketball would get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right?

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer daily, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's break down today's main slate on FanDuel.

The Slate and Key Injuries

From an injury report perspective, this might the ugliest four-game slate of the season.

The lone respite is in Memphis. Ja Morant is healthy and off the report tonight as they host the Bucks, who will be without Jrue Holiday (illness) once again.

In Houston, the Miami Heat should get back Jimmy Butler, who rested his knee on Wednesday. However, on a back-to-back, their other veterans might be in jeopardy.

The Pelicans are still without Brandon Ingram (toe) and Jose Alvarado (ribs), and the Jazz are still missing Collin Sexton (hamstring).

The nightcap is where it gets U-G-L-Y with no alibi. While the Suns have upgraded Devin Booker (hamstring) to questionable, they lost Deandre Ayton to an ankle injury last game, and he didn't return. He's officially questionable, and Cameron Payne (foot) is out.

They're in Los Angeles facing the Clippers, who are likely to rest Kawhi Leonard during the second leg of their back-to-back. Ivica Zubac (knee) also left last night's game early. John Wall (rest) should return tonight, but other veterans are question marks, too.

Guards

Ja Morant ($10,800) got a salary bump to make the decision at the top of guard harder today, but no one else is close.

Morant's 36.2% usage rate with Desmond Bane off the floor this season is elite, and he's averaged 54.2 FanDuel points per 36 minutes during that floor condition. He feels over-salaried, which is why our model isn't a fan today. I still think he's tremendous in this high-paced shootout with the Bucks.

From there, I'm leaving Chris Paul ($8,200) behind -- even if Booker and Ayton sit. He's only eclipsed 40 FanDuel points twice this season, and his usage rate (17.3%) just isn't high enough to produce slate-bursting upside without steals.

I'd rather turn to C.J. McCollum ($7,500) or Kevin Porter Jr. ($7,300). McCollum's production drop is directly correlated with his 37.9% shooting from the field in December. If that bounces back closer to last season's field goal rate (49.3%), he's a steal at this salary.

As for KPJ, he's met this salary in production rate all season (36.7 FanDuel points per 36). Recently, his teammateJalen Green ($7,100) is wildly overperforming from his norm (33.7 FanDuel points per 36) due to back-to-back games meeting his season high in rebounds (7). Once that drops, he's still a high-usage, low-efficiency scorer for a hefty salary.

McCollum and Porter Jr. are two of numberFire's top-projected guards of the day, surrounded by Kyle Lowry ($6,700), Mike Conley ($5,900), Reggie Jackson ($5,000), and Jevon Carter ($4,900). I'd add Damion Lee ($4,600) and Landry Shamet ($4,000) to that list if Booker sits again.

Wings

Wing is better to spend at today toward the top.

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000) disappointed in the end box score on Tuesday, but he still posted 66.9 FanDuel points per 36 minutes if the Warriors had kept pace in that one. As two-point underdogs in Memphis, I'm not concerned there at all. Khris Middleton ($6,900) should see a bump in usage with Jrue out, too.

Paul George ($9,000) was also clunky and inefficient last night, but he still posted a triple-double in the Clips' convincing win. If he plays and Kawhi sits, he's held a tremendous usage rate (33.1%) in that floor condition. Marcus Morris ($4,900) also has a low salary for Los Angeles, presumably locked into a full-time role without Kawhi.

Curiously, Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($5,500) has burst into the Jazz rotation with at least 25 minutes in four straight contests. He's powered past 30 FanDuel points in three of those efforts. With Lauri Markkanen ($8,100) back, I wouldn't expect 19 points and 6 assists in 25 minutes every night and will likely fade the gaggle of Jazz wings splitting time.

Miami's full-time wings, Caleb Martin ($5,000) and Max Strus ($4,900), should be in line for hefty minutes if both suit up. The return of Jimmy Butler ($9,600) squashes the appeal of Tyler Herro ($7,700), who is salaried for his usage in Jimmy's absence.

Middleton, Morris, Martin, and Strus float around the top of our model today, and Dillon Brooks ($6,400), Trey Murphy III ($5,500), and Grayson Allen ($4,400) are other notables.

Bigs

There's only one star big man on this slate, and I'm not opposed to Zion Williamson ($10,200).

Without Brandon Ingram, the big-bodied forward has a usage rate to match his size (29.5%) and averages 8.67 rebounds per 36 minutes. He's a high-floor play, posting at least 46 FanDuel points in 8 of his last 10 games. He just demolished Utah on Tuesday for 26 points in 25 minutes, too.

Bam Adebayo ($9,200) is a cross-off today given Butler should return, and he might not even play. The Heat haven't given full reigns to Dewayne Dedmon ($3,700) at any point, so the largest spike of that news would be the aforementioned Martin.

Miami's lack of size could force Alperen Sengun ($6,300) to the bench, but the athletic Jabari Smith ($5,800) is a highly intriguing play as a small-ball five against them. Kenyon Martin Jr. ($4,200) is another guy who might benefit.

Our model only has one big man over a value score of 5.00 in our projections, and that's Brook Lopez ($6,300). He's fine. I'm dodging its recommendation on Jonas Valanciunas ($5,700), who has been held under 20 minutes in consecutive games as Zion operates the five.

Projecting out injuries, Bismack Biyombo ($5,300) would likely start for Ayton and leap to the top of value options at big. Robert Covington ($4,000) might also start at the five tonight for the Clippers if Zubac can't go. Unfortunately, we won't know either before lock.