Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)
Philadelphia 76ers at Washington Wizards
Philadelphia 76ers Moneyline (-196)
Philadelphia 76ers -5.0 (-110)
Despite a 10-game slate, not a whole lot is jumping out due to injury adjustments and some efficient lines. That's leading to a pretty narrow betting card for me.
One spot that does look good is for the 76ers to win on the road against the Washington Wizards. numberFire's model gives them a 70.8% chance to win, and mine has their odds at 68.3%. I don't like the spread as much, as it's about on point with the models' projections, but it's also viable if you don't want a -196 moneyline.
Philadelphia is 8-1 in games with James Harden and Joel Embiid but without Tyrese Maxey active. They have a 121.8 offensive rating in those games but do play at a really slow pace.
Washington has an 8-7 home record despite a point differential of -1.3. They're top-five in home luck so far this season, so we can go against them in Capital One Arena with some confidence.
Los Angeles Clippers at Toronto Raptors
Under 218.5 (-110)
In games with both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George active, the Los Angeles Clippers are 8-3 with a net rating of +7.7 and an average offensive rating of 112.9.
This is despite an expected effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 51.0% and an actual output of 54.5%. They're likely overperforming offensively as a result, and doing the math (subtracting the net rating from the offensive rating), we see that the Clippers should project as an elite defense with Leonard and George active.
For the Toronto Raptors, they also hold a pretty average offensive rating (113.8) after adjusting for injuries, and they have surpassed their own implied team total in just 39.4% of their games.
My model projects this game to score 212.4 points, and numberFire's algorithm has it even lower.
Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers
Under 238.5 (-110)
There's another under to like tonight, and it comes at a much higher number (238.5) than we see in the Clippers/Raptors game.
The Atlanta Hawks will be without Clint Capela but still have Trae Young and Dejounte Murray. Accounting for that, they've got a 113.6 offensive rating.
The Indiana Pacers are, overall, healthy, and so we can expect a baseline offensive rating of 110.0 points (with a defensive rating of 113.6).
So, what this means is that we're dealing with two average offenses and two okay-at-best defenses. The tempo will be up, sure, but the offensive efficiency expectations just aren't matching up with the total.
Atlanta has averaged -2.1 points compared to their implied team total for each game. The number for Indiana offensively is +0.5 but defensively is -3.4.