Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Tampa Bay Rays at Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks ML (-110)
With questionable pitching situations against lethal offenses, this one is rightfully a toss-up. I'll take the home Diamondbacks.
Rookie Brandon Pfaadt hasn't quite lived up to the hype in his inaugural campaign to this point, but I still believe in him. He's allowed three runs or fewer in each of his last nine starts with Triple-A Reno, but it's not translated to the bigs with a 7.17 expected ERA (xERA) thus far.
Tampa Bay's pitching situation -- as you'd expect from the line -- isn't great, either. They'll go from opener Zack Littell (5.60 xERA) to Yonny Chirinos (5.56 xERA) in today's game, and both are righties.
There are two key reasons I like Arizona. Believe it or not, they've outperformed the mighty Rays versus right-handers this month, amassing a 118 wRC+ to Tampa's 115. All season, the Snakes' bullpen (4.00 xFIP) has also been significantly more reliable than Tampa Bay's (4.56 xFIP).
Add in potential upside from Pfaadt growing into the major-league level, and they're a solid wager at a pick 'em.
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels
Under 9.5 (-122)
I've been targeting unders in Lance Lynn's starts to modest success in June. They're 3-1 if you got the best of the number.
Lynn's 6.40 ERA is inflated off a handful of blowup outings, and it wouldn't be a stunner if the potent Angels offense created another, but in general, the righty has deserved better. His 3.83 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) comes from a sizable 27.0% strikeout rate and an average exit velocity (88.5 mph) that rivals last year's mark.
However, his offense is a key reason why this under could be a good look. The White Sox have badly struggled against southpaws this month, posting the league's second-worst OPS against them (.585). They'll face lefty Patrick Sandoval today.
Sandoval is the definition of serviceable with a 4.59 xERA, and he's had a high floor with a minuscule 28.2% flyball rate. If balls aren't leaving the yard, it'll be hard to blow up without finding some good fortune along the way.
This total approaching 10 is too high when both hurlers can reasonably expect some success.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
Rockies +1.5 (+118)
Rockies ML (+180)
Oddsmakers are far more confident in Emmet Sheehan than I am.
Sheehan's third career start will come at Coors Field, which is a place ripe to hand him the regression he's due. Sheehan's 1.50 ERA is supported by an ugly 5.99 SIERA, and to this point, his gaudy whiff rate from Triple-A Oklahoma City (41.7%) hasn't even come close to showing up at the major-league level (16.7%).
Of course, Chase Anderson is being sent to pasture by many bettors in this spot after his blowup outing sparked a 25-1 loss on Saturday, but his 5.09 SIERA is significantly lower than Sheehan's in an extended sample, and his flyball rate (36.8%) and hard-hit rate allowed (31.8%) are absolutely fine.
Yes, the Rockies' 81 wRC+ against righties this month is poor, but the Dodgers aren't much further ahead (90) as both added big bats into this series. L.A.'s Max Muncy and Colorado's C.J. Cron are two more weapons for these hurlers to navigate.
Runlines exist to even out the action on both sides, but somehow, 79% of bets and 91% of the money are backing the Dodgers' runline on Thursday at FanDuel Sportsbook. I can't help but fade the public with a surprisingly better package on the mound.