This is a rarity, but all three games on Monday are showing a bit of value in numberFire's model, but we'll stick to the best spots on this quick, efficient slate.
Where are they?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild
Wild ML (-138) - 2 Stars
It's rare that a team as exceptional as Vegas, who leads the Pacific Division, has goaltending concerns, but they do. I have no idea who even starts tonight between Laurent Brossoit and Jonathan Quick, and that's the issue.
They've got uncertainty when Minnesota doesn't if their goaltending rotation holds. Brossoit shined in a 4-1 win over the Wild on Saturday, but Minny did them a favor starting Marc-Andre Fleury. Fleury's 3.47 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) are fine, but they lag well behind normal starter Filip Gustavsson (24.80 GSAx).
Between Brossoit (3.64 GSAx) and Quick (1.20 GSAx with Vegas), they don't have a goaltender on Gustavsson's level.
Minnesota is also playing considerably better than Vegas in March. The Wild's 51.3% expected-goals-for rate (xGF%) is considerably ahead of the Knights' rate (44.8%). In fact, on that metric alone, Vegas was a bottom-10 club last month.
Our model expects Minnesota to win this game 65.9% of the time, but these odds imply just a 57.6% chance it happens.
Arizona Coyotes at Seattle Kraken
Coyotes +1.5 (+106) - 3 Stars
With back-to-back games failing to cover, the Coverin' Coyotes might be due.
Arizona is 46-31 against the spread (ATS) this year as one of the league's worst teams, which is one of the most bizarre NHL betting trends I can remember in years of paying attention. It's a simple deduction, to me, of undervaluing their elite goaltending.
Both Karel Vejmelka (9.03 GSAx) and Connor Ingram (8.93 GSAx) can keep them in games they have no business competing, and it lessens their perceived difficulty in navigating back-to-backs.
Seattle has been one of my favorite targets all year, so I have no qualms about backing our trusty Yotes against them. For the year, their 52.3% goals-for rate significantly outperformed their 51.4 xGF%.
Our model expects Arizona to hang within a goal (or better) 63.0% of the time in this one. Against these 47.6% implied odds, this is numberFire's best bet of the day.