If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be popular and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will be much less popular can separate you from your opponents.
The same goes for EPL DFS. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features seven matches. All betting lines come from the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and FoxBet, and they may change after the article is published.
Slate Overview
Newcastle (+110) at Brentford (+260)
Over 2.5 Goals: +106 | Most Likely to Score: Isak (+180)
West Ham (+160) at Fulham (+185)
Over 2.5 Goals: +118 | Most Likely to Score: Vinicius (+185)
Brighton (+160) at Tottenham (+160)
Over 2.5 Goals: +112 | Most Likely to Score: Kane (+130)
Bournemouth (+300) at Leicester City (-100)
Over 2.5 Goals: -112 | Most Likely to Score: Vardy (+115)
Chelsea (-110) at Wolves (+330)
Over 2.5 Goals: +118 | Most Likely to Score: Aubameyang (+195)
Nottingham Forest (+470) at Aston Villa (-175)
Over 2.5 Goals: -108 | Most Likely to Score: Watkins (+135)
Manchester City (-450) at Southampton (+1100)
Over 2.5 Goals: -170 | Most Likely to Score: Haaland (-180)
Matchweek 30 features three big-six sides, with Manchester City, Tottenham, and Chelsea in action on a seven-game main slate.
Manchester City (-450 to win) are the largest favorite on the slate, and Erling Haaland ($24) has the best odds to score (-180) of any player expected to be active on Saturday.
Aston Villa (-175 to win) are the second-largest favorite, followed by Chelsea (-110 to win) and Leicester City (-110 to win). Newcastle (+110 to win) and West Ham (+160 to win) round out the slate, with Tottenham and Brighton (+160 to win) evenly matched in their contest.
All eyes will be on Manchester City as they look to keep pace with Arsenal in the race for the Premier League. Their odds to win are significantly higher than the rest of the field, and Haaland's odds to score are as well. In fact, Haaland's odds to score two or more goals (+230) is closer to the rest of the player pool than his odds to score one. All that to say, City's stars will be popular this weekend and are a very risky fade.
With that in mind, here are three players to consider -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Jacob Ramsey, FWD/MID, Aston Villa
FanDuel Salary: $16
Villa enter this weekend undefeated in their last six matches, with five wins over that period. Over their last six matches, they have secured the second-most points in the league, tied with Manchester City, and have a +9 goal differential. They are fully deserving of their standing as the slate's second-largest on-paper favorite, facing a Nottingham Forest side that has conceded a league-worst 14 goals over their last six matches.
Ramsey has started 10 of Villa's last 11 matches and has produced more than 15 FanDuel points in three of his last four appearances. He had a rough 4.3 FanDuel-point performance in his most recent match but had an assist and a goal with three shots and three chances created combined in the two matches before that.
With Raheem Sterling ($17), Enzo Fernandez ($15), and several of Newcastle's usual starters in his salary range, Ramsey should go overlooked on Saturday. Villa's form and his recent impact make him worthy of consideration for large-field tournaments.
Hamed Traore, FWD/MID, Bournemouth
FanDuel Salary: $12
Saturday's clash between Bournemouth and Leicester is an interesting one. Leicester enter Saturday winless in their last eight fixtures but are on-paper favorites against a Bournemouth side that has won two and lost two in their last four matches. Bournemouth's wins came against Fulham and Liverpool, with their losses against two in-form sides in Brighton and Aston Villa.
In what amounts to a very important relegation battle for both sides, there should be plenty of opportunities for both. This match has the second-best odds to see more than 2.5 combined goals (-112), behind only Manchester City's clash with Southampton.
Traore has had mixed results since he arrived from Sassulo at the end of the January transfer window. He has yet to score or assist, but he has been a consistent creator of chances, with 14 in his 7 appearances. He has a key role on free kicks for Bournemouth, and his +260 odds to score or assist are better than those of Newcastle's Bruno Guimaraes ($13). With a low salary and a key role on a team facing a struggling Leicester side, Traore could pop as a low-rostered play.
Jacob Murphy, FWD/MID, Newcastle
FanDuel Salary: $13
Since March 12th, Murphy has become a consistent part of Newcastle's starting lineup and has delivered in his four starts since. He has FanDuel outputs of 7.6, 15.0, 10.3, and 17.6 with a combined seven shots, nine chances created and one assist.
Murphy's arrival in the starting XI has coincided with a four-match winning streak for Newcastle, which has seen them take three points from Wolves, Nottingham Forest, Manchester United, and West Ham. Brentford is not an easy matchup, but they are winless in their last three, with a combined five goals conceded over their last three matches.
Operating on the right side of Newcastle's 4-3-3, Murphy should have every opportunity to extend his good run of form and help Newcastle keep pace in the race for a top-four finish. At a salary of just $13, he can fit in lineups that center on Manchester City's high-salary stars.